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气象:2024,50(3):377-386
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2023年汛期气候预测效果评述及先兆信号分析
支蓉,高辉,孙冷
(国家气候中心,中国气象局气候研究开放实验室,北京 100081)
Overview of Climate Predicition for the Summer 2023 in China and Its Precursors
ZHI Rong,GAO Hui,SUN Leng
(Laboratory of Climate Studies, National Climate Centre, CMA, Beijing 100081)
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投稿时间:2024-01-09    修订日期:2024-01-30
中文摘要: 2023年夏季,我国整体表现为高温少雨的特征,旱涝分布不均。夏季台风虽然生成和登陆个数均较常年偏少,但破坏力极强。华北、西北等地阶段性高温事件异常突出,但长江流域的高温干旱强度明显弱于2022年同期。从预测效果来看,2023年汛期预测较好把握了我国北方主雨带特征,对松花江流域、嫩江流域、海河流域可能出现的较重汛情做出了准确的预测预警。对夏季热带气旋的生成个数、主要路径、影响区域等的预测与实况较为相符。对夏季全国大部地区气温偏高的特征预测与实况一致,并明确指出,长江流域发生类似2022年夏季大范围持续性高温干旱事件的可能性低。汛期预测的不足之处主要在于对华南等地的降水预测与实况出现较大偏差,对华北、黄淮等地的高温过程极端性估计不足。针对2023年汛期降水的先兆信号及其预报性能进行了回顾和评估,无论是年代际尺度还是年际尺度外强迫信号,均对我国北方主雨带有较好的指示意义。同时,几乎所有先兆信号都对华南降水给出了一致的错误信息,是导致华南降水预报失败的主要原因。
Abstract:In the summer of 2023, China experienced a climate of higher temperature and less precipitation. Both the droughts and the floods showed remarkable spatial differences. Although the numbers of typhoons generated and landing in summer were both less than normal, the typhoons that formed were extremely destructive. In terms of temperature, persistent heat waves were the most prominent in North China and Northwest China since 1961, but the intensities of high temperature and drought were significantly weaker than those in the summer of 2022 across the Yangtze River Basin. The prediction effect has shown that the climate prediction successfully forecasted the characteristics of the rain belt in northern China, and made accurate prediction and early warning of the possible heavy floods in Songhua River Basin, Nenjiang River Basin and Haihe River Basin. The forecasted number, main track and affected area of tropical cyclones in summer were also consistent with the observation. Prediction skills of mean temperatures in most parts of China are higher than normal, especially the heat wave intensity in the Yangtze River Basin in 2023. The primary error of precipitation forecast in the rainy season mainly occurred in South China, and the extreme high temperature processes were underestimated for North China and Huanghuai Region. In addition, the precursors and their forecasting performance in summer 2023 are also reviewed and diagnosed. The results indicate that both the interdecadal and interannual variations of external forcing had good indicative significances for the prediction of rain belt in northern China. However, almost all the precursors gave consistent wrong information about the precipitation in South China, which was the main reason for the failure of precipitation forecast in South China.
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基金项目:国家自然科学基金重点项目(42130610)、国家重点研发计划(2017YFC1502300)和国家自然科学基金面上项目(41975088)共同资助
引用文本:
支蓉,高辉,孙冷,2024.2023年汛期气候预测效果评述及先兆信号分析[J].气象,50(3):377-386.
ZHI Rong,GAO Hui,SUN Leng,2024.Overview of Climate Predicition for the Summer 2023 in China and Its Precursors[J].Meteor Mon,50(3):377-386.