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气象:2024,50(3):318-330
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海陀山冬季降水天气分型及冬奥预报应用
陶亦为,张芳华,胡宁,胡艺,刘珺,柳春
(国家气象中心,北京 100081;中国气象局华风气象传媒集团,北京 100081;安徽省气象台,合肥 230031)
Synoptic Pattern Classification of Winter Precipitation over Haituo Mountain and Application in the Forecast During Beijing 2022 Winter Olympic Games
TAO Yiwei,ZHANG Fanghua,HU Ning,HU Yi,LIU Jun,LIU Chun
(National Meteorological Centre, Beijing 100081;Huafeng Meteorological Media Group Co., Ltd., Beijing 100081;Anhui Meteorological Observatory, Hefei 230031)
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投稿时间:2022-10-07    修订日期:2023-12-25
中文摘要: 基于2019—2021年1月1日至3月15日北京冬奥会延庆赛区(以下简称海陀山)降水观测资料和ERA5再分析资料,对期间34次降水过程进行天气分型,并对各天气型下不同海拔的降水实况特征开展统计分析。研究结果表明:冬季海陀山降水根据天气系统及地形影响可分为偏北气流型、偏东气流型、低涡低槽型、回流低涡低槽型四种天气型。不同天气型下海陀山地形高度以下主要气流方向和强度、水汽垂直分布等条件,以及与地形相互作用使得不同海拔之间降水量、持续时间等呈现显著差异。偏北气流型受500 hPa槽后整层强偏北气流控制,形成越山气流,降水集中在高海拔地区;偏东气流型受低层偏东气流影响,降水集中在低海拔地区,以上两种天气型无天气尺度系统配合,由地形强迫作用主导,降水量不大、持续时间相对较短。低涡低槽型受高空东移低涡低槽作用,配合低层西南气流,高海拔降水量更多,同时该型也是海陀山冬季最主要的降水天气型;回流低涡低槽型受高空东移低涡低槽影响,配合降水前东风回流对低层增湿并起到冷垫作用,低海拔降水量更多,以上两种天气型均存在天气尺度系统,并叠加海陀山地形作用,降水量显著且持续时间长,会对赛事运行造成较大影响。上述特征统计结果在2022年北京冬奥会期间一次强降雪预报服务中得到验证和应用,证明上述结果可以在冬季海陀山复杂地形降水预报中发挥作用。
Abstract:In this study, based on precipitation observation data and ERA5 reanalysis data of Haituo Mountain from 1 January to 15 March of 2019-2021, the 34 winter precipitation processes in Haituo Mountain were classified. The characteristics of observed precipitation at different altitudes under different weather types were analyzed statistically. The results were as follows. According to the influence of weather system and terrain, the winter precipitation in Haituo Mountain can be divided into four weather types: northerly airflow type, easterly airflow type, low eddy trough type, and backflow low eddy trough type. Under different weather types, the direction and intensity of the airflow, the vertical distribution of water vapor and other conditions below the topographic height of Haituo Mountain as well as the interaction with the topographic conditions, make significant differences in precipitation and its duration between different altitudes. The northerly airflow type is controlled by the strong northerly airflow in the whole layer behind the 500 hPa trough, forming the airflow passing over mountain, and the precipitation is concentrated in the high-altitude area. The easterly airflow type is affected by the easterly airflow at the lower level, and the precipitation is concentrated in the low-altitude area. The above two weather types have no synoptic-scale system to accompany, and are dominated by topographic forcing, so the precipitation is small in amount, lasting for relatively short time. The low eddy trough type is affected by the high-altitude eastward movement of low trough, accompanied by the low level southwest airflow, which makes more precipitation at high-altitude area, and this type is also the most frequent weather type in Haituo Mountain in winter. Backflow low eddy trough type is affected by the low trough, with easterly backflow before precipitation to humidify the lower level and play a role of cold cushion, so the precipitation in low-altitude area is more. The above two weather types have synoptic-scale systems, superimposed by the topographic effect of Haituo Mountain terrain, which causes significant precipitation and its long duration, affecting the game run. The above results have been applied in the forecast of a heavy snowfall process during the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics Games, and proved that the statistical results of the above characteristics can play a role in the forecast of precipitation over complex terrain of Haituo Mountain in winter.
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基金项目:国家重点研究发展计划(2018YFF0300104)和安徽省自然科学基金青年项目(2008085QD190)共同资助
引用文本:
陶亦为,张芳华,胡宁,胡艺,刘珺,柳春,2024.海陀山冬季降水天气分型及冬奥预报应用[J].气象,50(3):318-330.
TAO Yiwei,ZHANG Fanghua,HU Ning,HU Yi,LIU Jun,LIU Chun,2024.Synoptic Pattern Classification of Winter Precipitation over Haituo Mountain and Application in the Forecast During Beijing 2022 Winter Olympic Games[J].Meteor Mon,50(3):318-330.