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气象:2023,49(6):757-764
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损失率评估模型在广东气象灾害损失评估中的应用
伍红雨,邹燕,郭尧
(广东省气候中心,广州 510641; 中国气象局广州热带海洋气象研究所/广东省区域数值天气预报重点实验室,广州 510641; 福建省气候中心,福州 350001; 南方电网数字电网集团有限责任公司,广州 510663)
Application of Loss Rate Evaluation Model in Meteorological Disaster Loss Evaluation in Guangdong
WU Hongyu,ZOU Yan,GUO Yao
(Guangdong Climate Centre, Guangzhou 510641; Guangzhou Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology, CMA/Guangdong Key Laboratory of Regional Numerical Weather Prediction, Guangzhou 510641; Fujian Climate Centre, Fuzhou 350001; China Southern Power Grid Digital Grid Group Co., Ltd., Guangzhou 510663)
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投稿时间:2022-05-05    修订日期:2023-05-22
中文摘要: 利用1995—2021年《广东省防灾减灾年鉴》《2021广东统计年鉴》资料,基于面向气象灾害损失的损失率评估模型,对近27年广东暴雨洪涝、台风、低温冷冻、干旱、强对流(含雷击)等5种主要气象灾害逐年损失和总损失进行定量评估和分析。结果表明,台风、暴雨、低温冷冻、强对流以及总损失的年损失率指数最大峰值都出现在20世纪90年代中后期,干旱年损失率指数峰值出现在2002年。广东气象灾害总损失极重有6年,其中1994年损失率指数达7.62,为研究时段内气象灾害总损失最重的年份。近27年来,广东年气象灾害总损失的损失率指数呈明显减小的趋势,2000—2020年期间指数平均值为0.17,较1994—1999年平均值减小92.54%,死亡失踪人数指数减少60.83%。
Abstract:Using the data of the 1995-2021 Guangdong Disaster Prevention and Reduction Yearbook and the 2021 Guangdong Statistical Yearbook, based on the loss rate assessment model for meteorological disaster losses, we quantitatively analyze and assess the annual losses and total losses of five major meteorological disasters caused by rainstorm, flood, typhoon, low temperature freezing, drought and severe convection (including lightning strike) in Guangdong in the past 27 years. The results show that the peak values of annual loss rate indexes of typhoon, rainstorm, low temperature freezing, severe convection and total loss all appeared in the middle and late 1990s, while the peak value of drought loss rate index was seen in 2002. The total losses of meteorological disasters in Guangdong were extremely heavy in 6 years, of which the loss rate index in 1994 reached 7.62, so 1994 is the year with the highest total loss of meteorological disasters during the research periods. In the past 27 years, the loss rate index of the total losses caused by meteorological disasters in Guangdong has shown a significant decreasing trend. The average index value during the period from 2000 to 2020 was 0.17, a decrease of 92.54% compared to the average value from 1994 to 1999, and a decrease of 60.83% in the index of deaths and missing persons.
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基金项目:2022年度广东省级灾害防治及应急管理专项项目——2022年应急风险分析与应急能力建设研究、广东省气象局科技创新团队(GRMCTD202101)和国家自然科学基金项目(41930972)共同资助
引用文本:
伍红雨,邹燕,郭尧,2023.损失率评估模型在广东气象灾害损失评估中的应用[J].气象,49(6):757-764.
WU Hongyu,ZOU Yan,GUO Yao,2023.Application of Loss Rate Evaluation Model in Meteorological Disaster Loss Evaluation in Guangdong[J].Meteor Mon,49(6):757-764.