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气象:2023,49(3):257-266
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未来的极端天气气候与水文事件预估及其应对
周佰铨,翟盘茂
(中国气象科学研究院灾害天气国家重点实验室,北京 100081)
The Future Projections of Extreme Weather, Climate and Water Events and Strategic Responses
ZHOU Baiquan,ZHAI Panmao
(State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081)
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投稿时间:2023-02-01    修订日期:2023-03-01
中文摘要: 人类活动造成的气候变化已经影响到全球每个地区的极端天气气候和水文事件。全球变暖的任何额外增量都会伴随极端事件更大的变化,如果没有全球性的碳中和行动,极端高温事件的增多增强以及极端冷事件的减少减弱趋势将贯穿整个21世纪,强降水以及一些地区的农业和生态干旱的强度和发生频率也会显著增加。当代的儿童和后代在未来更容易受到气候变化和相关极端事件风险的影响,即使是在相对于工业化以前的1.5℃温升水平下,到21世纪末遭受的极端天气气候和水文事件的数量仍将增加近4倍。针对日益严峻的气候变化与极端事件灾害风险,亟须积极推进“双碳”行动,并大力减少甲烷等其他温室气体的排放。同时,亟须做好防灾减灾相关政策与措施的制定,推进极端事件监测与早期预警系统及恢复力建设,加强对复合极端事件与小概率高影响事件的预防,保障未来几代人的福祉安康和可持续发展。
Abstract:Climate change induced by human activities has already been affecting many weather, climate and water extremes in every region across the globe. Every additional increment of global warming will lead to larger changes in extreme events. If there is no action on global carbon neutralization, further increases in the intensity and frequency of hot extremes and decreases in the intensity and frequency of cold extremes will occur throughout the 21st century around the world. And the intensity and frequency of heavy precipitation as well as agricultural and ecological drought in some regions will also undergo a significant increase. Today’s children and future generations are more vulnerable to the risk of future climate change and extremes. They are projected to experience nearly four-fold increase in extreme weather, climate and water events by the end of this century even at 1.5℃ of warming relative to pre-industrial levels. In view of the increasingly severe risk of climate change and extreme events, it is urgent to actively pursue the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals and strong reductions in the emissions of methane and other greenhouse gases. At the same time, it is urgent to formulate policies and measures related to disaster prevention and mitigation, and promote the construction of extreme event monitoring and early warning system and resilience. Additionally, it cannot be neglected to enhance the prevention of compound extreme events and small probability-high impact events to ensure the well-being and sustainable development of future generations.
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基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(41905082、U2142205)共同资助
引用文本:
周佰铨,翟盘茂,2023.未来的极端天气气候与水文事件预估及其应对[J].气象,49(3):257-266.
ZHOU Baiquan,ZHAI Panmao,2023.The Future Projections of Extreme Weather, Climate and Water Events and Strategic Responses[J].Meteor Mon,49(3):257-266.