本文已被:浏览 227次 下载 1204次
投稿时间:2021-10-08 修订日期:2022-07-29
投稿时间:2021-10-08 修订日期:2022-07-29
中文摘要: 21世纪以来,福建省出现多次严重或较严重的干旱事件,尤其近年来干旱呈现多发频发态势,干旱灾害仍然是福建防灾减灾的重要内容之一。根据福建省66个国家气象站1961年1月至2020年12月的逐日气象干旱综合指数(MCI),参照本地算法及《区域性干旱过程监测评估方法》,识别全省区域及66个气象站的干旱过程,并通过Copula函数,揭示福建干旱过程变化规律和重现期特征。结果表明:福建干旱历时和强度变化趋势基本一致;干旱过程多为单季干旱和两季连旱,两季连旱主要为夏秋旱和秋冬旱,三季连旱仅出现过夏秋冬连旱;大部分干旱过程存在1~3 a的重现周期,严重干旱过程较少;超50年一遇的干旱过程是1967年和2003年的夏秋冬三季连旱;重现期较短的干旱,中南部沿海一带干旱历时长、强度强,由此往北逐渐缩短和减弱;重现期长的干旱,中南部沿海一带仍然是干旱历时长、强度强区域,但北部内陆山区同时出现了干旱历时较长、强度较强的区域;60年来,除9年无旱,18年局部区域干旱重现期达100年以上外,其余33年干旱重现期均未超过50年。
中文关键词: 干旱过程,MCI指数,重现期,福建
Abstract:Since the 21st Century, Fujian Province has witnessed several severe or relatively severe drought events. Especially in recent years, drought has still been an important part of disaster prevention and mitigation in Fujian Province. According to the daily meteorological comprehensive index (MCI) of 66 national meteorological stations in Fujian from January 1961 to December 2020, the drought processes of the regional and 66 meteorological stations in Fujian are identified by referring to the local algorithm and the “Regional Drought Process Monitoring and Evaluation Method”. Besides, the Copula function is used to reveal the characteristics of drought process change and return period in Fujian. The results show that the variation trend of drought duration and intensity in Fujian is basically consistent. The drought processes are mainly single-season drought and two-season consecutive drought. The two-season consecutive drought mainly covers summer and autumn and the three-season conscutive drought only occurred from summer to winter. There are 1-3-year recurrence periods for most drought processes, and fewer return periods for severe drought processes. The worst droughts with a return period of more than 50 years were the summer-autumn-winter droughts in 1967 and 2003. The droughts with short return periods have long durations and strong intensities along the central and southern coastal areas, becoming gradually shortened and weakened northward. The central and southern coastal areas are still the areas suffering from the droughts with longer durations and stronger intensity, but the inland mountainous areas in the north of the province once had droughts with long duration and strong intensity simultaneously. In the past 60 years, there were 9 years with no drought, 18 years with the drought recurrence period reaching more than 100 years in some regions, and other 33 years with the drought return period not exceeding 50 years.
文章编号: 中图分类号: 文献标志码:
基金项目:国家重点研发计划(2018YFC1505805、2018YFC1505906)共同资助
作者 | 单位 |
杨歆雨 | 福建省灾害天气重点实验室,福州 350007 福建省气象灾害防御技术中心,福州 350007 |
张容焱 | 福建省灾害天气重点实验室,福州 350007 福建省气候中心,福州 350007 |
潘航 | 福建省气候中心,福州 350007 |
高诗妍 | 福建省气候中心,福州 350007 |
于晨 | 福建省灾害天气重点实验室,福州 350007 |
鲍瑞娟 | 福建省气象灾害防御技术中心,福州 350007 |
引用文本:
杨歆雨,张容焱,潘航,高诗妍,于晨,鲍瑞娟,2022.福建省多维度气象干旱特征时空分布分析[J].气象,48(12):1565-1576.
YANG Xinyu,ZHANG Rongyan,PAN Hang,GAO Shiyan,YU Chen,BAO Ruijuan,2022.Spatio-Temporal Distribution Analysis of Multi-Dimensional Meteorological Drought Characteristics in Fujian Province[J].Meteor Mon,48(12):1565-1576.
杨歆雨,张容焱,潘航,高诗妍,于晨,鲍瑞娟,2022.福建省多维度气象干旱特征时空分布分析[J].气象,48(12):1565-1576.
YANG Xinyu,ZHANG Rongyan,PAN Hang,GAO Shiyan,YU Chen,BAO Ruijuan,2022.Spatio-Temporal Distribution Analysis of Multi-Dimensional Meteorological Drought Characteristics in Fujian Province[J].Meteor Mon,48(12):1565-1576.