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投稿时间:2022-07-21 修订日期:2022-09-04
投稿时间:2022-07-21 修订日期:2022-09-04
中文摘要: 利用气象台站观测资料、NCEP/NCAR大气再分析资料和NOAA的海温资料,采用相关、合成分析等方法分析和讨论了2022年春季我国的气候主要特征和成因诊断。2022年春季,我国季风雨带进程总体呈现偏早的特点。全国平均气温为12.1℃,为1961年以来历史同期最高值。全国平均降水量为154 mm,接近常年同期,但旱涝分布差异显著,其中西南地区降水量为1961年以来历史同期最高值。通过对同期的环流分析发现,对流层中高层形成的自乌拉尔山以北经青藏高原至中南半岛“―+―”的西北—东南向异常环流形势,使得低层风场上低纬异常偏东气流及南下的异常东北—偏北气流在西南地区辐合,有利于水汽向西南地区的输送和冷暖空气在西南地区的交汇,从而导致2022年春季西南地区降水的异常偏多。此外,自2021年秋季开始并一直持续发展的中东太平洋拉尼娜事件是西南地区春季降水异常偏多的重要外强迫因子,而拉尼娜事件结束的早晚会对春季西南地区降水异常产生不同的影响。2022年春季持续发展的拉尼娜事件使得上述异常环流型更为典型,更有利于西南地区的降水偏多。
中文关键词: 春季气候异常,西南降水,水汽输送,拉尼娜事件
Abstract:Based on the meteorological observation data, NCEP/NCAR atmospheric reanalysis data and NOAA SST data, this paper analyzes the main climate characteristics and discusses the cause diagnosis in China in the spring of 2022 by using correlation and synthesis analysis methods. The results show that in spring 2022 (March-April-May, MAM), the process of monsoon rain belt in China is earlier generally. China experienced the warmest spring since 1961, with an average temperature reaching 12.1℃. The MAM precipitation averaged (154 mm) in China was close to normal, but the precipitation reached unprece-dentedly high values in Southwest China, showing distinguished spatial diversity. A northwest-southeast anomalous circulation pattern “―+―” was formed in the middle-upper troposphere, which started from the north of Ural Mountains, via the Tibetan Plateau, and to the Indo-China Peninsula. Such pattern allowed the low-latitude anomalous easterly airflow to converge with southward northeast-northerly airflow in Southwest China, which further facilitated water vapor transport and intersection of cold and warm air, finally causing abnormally more precipitation in Southwest China in spring 2022. In addition, the La Ni〖AKn~D〗a event (autumn 2021 begins) acted as an important forcing factor for excessive spring precipitation in Southwest China. The sustained development of the La Ni〖AKn~D〗a in spring 2022 led to more typically anomalous circulation patterns than normal development, exacerbating the excessive precipitation in Southwest China.
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基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(42175056)、中国气象局创新发展专项(CXFZ2022J031、CXFZ2022J009)和中国长江三峡集团有限公司项目(0704181)共同资助
作者 | 单位 |
李多 | 国家气候中心,中国气象局气候研究开放实验室,北京 100081 |
刘芸芸 | 国家气候中心,中国气象局气候研究开放实验室,北京 100081; 南京信息工程大学气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心,南京 210044 |
引用文本:
李多,刘芸芸,2022.2022年春季我国气候异常特征及成因分析[J].气象,48(10):1343-1353.
LI Duo,LIU Yunyun,2022.Features and Possible Causes of Climate Anomalies in China in Spring 2022[J].Meteor Mon,48(10):1343-1353.
李多,刘芸芸,2022.2022年春季我国气候异常特征及成因分析[J].气象,48(10):1343-1353.
LI Duo,LIU Yunyun,2022.Features and Possible Causes of Climate Anomalies in China in Spring 2022[J].Meteor Mon,48(10):1343-1353.
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