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气象:2022,48(6):783-793
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2020—2021年广东秋冬春干旱的成因分析
伍红雨,吴遥,郭尧
(广东省气候中心,广州 510641;中国气象局广州热带海洋气象研究所/广东省区域数值天气预报重点实验室,广州 510641;重庆市气候中心,重庆 401147;南方电网数字电网集团有限责任公司,广州 510663)
Cause Analysis of Drought in Autumn, Winter and Spring in Guangdong from 2020 to 2021
WU Hongyu,WU Yao,GUO Yao
(Guangdong Climate Center, Guangzhou 510641; Guangzhou Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology, CMA/Guangdong, Key Laboratory of Regional Numerical Weather Prediction, Guangzhou 510641; Chongqing Climate Center, Chongqing 401147; China Southern Power Grid Digital Grid Research Institute Co. Ltd., Guangzhou 510663)
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投稿时间:2021-07-12    修订日期:2022-03-29
中文摘要: 2020年10月至2021年5月华南发生了秋冬春干旱,特别是广东发生干旱的持续时间和降水减少程度为近58年所罕见。利用广东86个国家气象观测站逐日降水、气温资料,NCEP/NCAR和NOAA再分析资料,采用相关、合成分析的方法研究了2020—2021年广东秋冬春季大气环流和海温的异常特征,并探讨其与广东秋冬春干旱的关系。结果表明,2020—2021年广东秋冬春干旱发生在降水偏少的气候背景下,与大气环流和海温的异常密切相关。在2020—2021年秋冬春季,北半球高层副热带西风急流减弱,中层东亚大槽南段明显减弱,西太平洋副热带高压脊线明显偏北,低层南支槽偏弱,影响广东的冷空气偏弱,广东处于水汽辐散区,北太平洋高压明显增强。2020年8月至2021年3月赤道中东太平洋发生中等强度的拉尼娜事件,大气对拉尼娜事件有明显响应,Walker环流增强,菲律宾附近上升运动明显,广东有下沉运动,导致在对流层低层热带西太平洋、南海、菲律宾附近存在气旋性异常环流,阻挡了孟加拉湾、南海的西南水汽向广东输送,同时气温显著偏高,温高雨少导致广东干旱发生。
Abstract:The drought occurred in autumn, winter and spring in South China from October 2020 to May 2021, especially in Guangdong, where the duration of drought and the degree of precipitation reduction were rare in recent 58 years. Using the daily precipitation and temperature data of 86 national meteorological stations in Guangdong, NCEP/NCAR and NOAA reanalysis data, this paper studies the abnormal characteristics of atmospheric circulation and SST in autumn, winter and spring in Guangdong from 2020 to 2021 by using correlation and synthesis analysis methods, and discusses its relationship with the drought in autumn, winter and spring in Guangdong. The results show that the drought in autumn, winter and spring in Guangdong from 2020 to 2021 occurred under the climate background of less precipitation, and was closely related to the anomalies of atmospheric circulation and SST. In the autumn, winter and spring of 2020-2021, the high-level subtropical westerly jet in the Northern Hemisphere was weakened, the southern section of the Middle East Asia trough was significantly weakened, the ridge line of the Western Pacific subtropical high was significantly northward, the low level south branch trough was weak, the cold air affecting Guangdong was weak, Guangdong is in the water vapor divergence area, and the North Pacific high pressure was significantly enhanced. A La Ni〖AKn~D〗a event with moderate intensity occurred in the equatorial Middle East Pacific from August 2020 to March 2021, the atmosphere responded significantly to the La Ni〖AKn~D〗a event, the Walker circulation strengthened, the upward movement near the Philippines was obvious, and there was a downward movement in Guangdong, so that a cyclonic abnormal circulation formed near the tropical Western Pacific, the South China Sea and the Philippines in the lower troposphere. The cyclonic abnormal circlution blocked the transport of southwest water vapor from the Bay of Bengal and the South China Sea to Guangdong. At the same time, the temperature was significantly higher. At last, the high temperature and less rain led to the occurrence of drought in Guangdong.
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基金项目:2022年度省级灾害及应急管理专项资金项目“2022年应急风险分析与应急能力建设研究”、广东省气象局科技创新团队(GRMCTD202101)、〖JP〗中国气象局决策气象服务专项(JCZX2022007)共同资助
引用文本:
伍红雨,吴遥,郭尧,2022.2020—2021年广东秋冬春干旱的成因分析[J].气象,48(6):783-793.
WU Hongyu,WU Yao,GUO Yao,2022.Cause Analysis of Drought in Autumn, Winter and Spring in Guangdong from 2020 to 2021[J].Meteor Mon,48(6):783-793.