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气象:2022,48(4):494-503
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2021年秋季我国北方地区降水异常偏多的特征及成因分析
李多,顾薇
(国家气候中心,中国气象局气候研究开放实验室,北京 100081)
Analysis of Characteristics and Causes of Precipitation Anomalies over Northern China in Autumn 2021
LI Duo,GU Wei
(Laboratory of Climate Studies, National Climate Centre, CMA, Beijing 100081)
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投稿时间:2022-01-17    修订日期:2022-03-21
中文摘要: 2021年秋季,我国气候总体呈现气温偏高、降水偏多的特点。季内降水总体表现出“北多南少”的空间分布特征,华西秋雨异常偏强。对北方地区降水阶段性异常偏强的成因分析表明,9月至10月上旬,欧亚中高纬度环流呈“西低东高”型分布,贝加尔湖—巴尔喀什湖为显著低槽区,西太平洋副热带高压持续偏强、偏大、西伸明显,秋季前期异常偏北,有利于华西秋雨偏强。同期,850 hPa距平风场上日本海以西存在的异常反气旋式环流有利于引导偏东路径的冷湿气流输送至黄河与长江之间的地区,与来自孟加拉湾和南海的暖湿气流交汇,形成水汽通量异常辐合区,造成北方地区降水异常偏多。此外,MJO位于第3~5位相的日数异常偏多也是北方降水的有利因素之一。进一步诊断表明热带中东太平洋海温秋季再次进入拉尼娜状态,双峰型拉尼娜的海温条件有利于西太平洋副热带高压偏强西伸偏北。因此,海温外强迫信号的影响加上低纬和中高纬度环流异常的共同作用造成9月至10月上旬东亚环流型异常特征,并进一步导致我国北方地区降水异常偏多。
Abstract:During the autumn of 2021 the climate of China featured higher temperature and more rainfall in general. The distribution of precipitation in China showed “more in the north and less in the south”. The autumn precipitation in West China is extremely heavy. The analysis of the causes of the unusually heavy precipitation in the northern region of China shows that from September to early October, the circulation in the middle and high latitudes of Europe and Asia was distributed in a pattern of “low in the west and high in the east”, the area between Baikal Lake and Balkhash Lake was under a significantly low trough, and the West Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) was stronger, stretching more westward and northward than normal, which was favorable for the intensive autumn rainfall in West China. Meanwhile, anticyclonic circulation anomaly over the western Sea of Japan was conducive to guiding the cold and wet airflow to the area between the Yellow River and the Yangtze River, and met with the warm and wet airflow from the Bay of Bengal and the South China Sea, forming an abnormal convergence area of water vapor flux and resulting in abnormal precipitation in the northern region. In addition, the abnormal more days with MJO is in the 3rd to 5th phases was also one of the favorable factors for precipitation in northern China. Further diagnosis shows that the SST in the tropical middle-east Pacific Ocean entered La Ni〖AKn~D〗a state again in autumn, and the SST condition of double-dip La Ni〖AKn~D〗a was favorable for the WPSH to be stronger and extend westward to the north. Therefore, the influence of the external forcing signal of SST combined with the circulation anomaly in the low and mid-high latitudes led to more precipitation in northern China during September to early October.
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基金项目:国家自然科学基金联合基金项目(U2142207)和国家自然科学基金项目(41805067)共同资助
引用文本:
李多,顾薇,2022.2021年秋季我国北方地区降水异常偏多的特征及成因分析[J].气象,48(4):494-503.
LI Duo,GU Wei,2022.Analysis of Characteristics and Causes of Precipitation Anomalies over Northern China in Autumn 2021[J].Meteor Mon,48(4):494-503.