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气象:2022,48(3):334-344
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基于预报方程的我国近海阵风预报
胡海川,刘珺,林建
(国家气象中心,北京 100081; 中国气象局公共气象服务中心,北京 100081)
Application of Prediction Equation to Gust Forecasting for Chinese Offshore Areas
HU Haichuan,LIU Jun,LIN Jian
(National Meteorological Centre, Beijing 100081; CMA Public Meteorological Service Centre, Beijing 100081)
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投稿时间:2021-08-11    修订日期:2022-01-20
中文摘要: 阵风对航运及海上生产作业影响重大,但目前海上阵风客观预报产品较少且时间分辨率低。为进一步丰富海上阵风客观预报产品,提高海上阵风预报准确率,基于2016—2019年实况观测数据及ERA5再分析数据,采用多元回归方法建立我国近海逐小时阵风预报方程,并利用2020年ECMWF确定性模式数据进行预报试验。对比2020年ECMWF确定性模式中的阵风预报及阵风系数法预报产品,基于多元回归方法的阵风预报方程考虑了平均风速项、近地面层湍流作用项以及对流作用项,具有明确的物理意义和统计学意义,对阵风有更好的拟合效果。在8~9级阵风预报中,多元回归方法预报的平均误差、平均绝对误差低于ECMWF确定性模式中的阵风预报,在冷空气大风天气过程中的预报效果优于ECMWF确定性模式,同时该方法也能够反映出台风影响下的阵风情况,可为我国近海阵风预报提供参考。
Abstract:Gust has a significant impact on shipping and offshore production, but there are fewer objective gust forecast products and the time resolution is at a low level for the offshore areas of China. In order to enrich the objective forecast and improve the accuracy of sea gust forecasts, this paper uses the multiple regression method to establish the hourly gust forecast equations for Chinese offshore based on the 2016-2019 observation data and ERA5 reanalysis data, and also uses the 2020 ECMWF deterministic model data for forecasting experiments. Comparing the gust forecast products in the ECMWF deterministic model and gust factor method forecast products in 2020, we find that the gust forecast equation based on the multiple regression method considers the average wind speed term, the near-surface layer turbulence term and the convection term, and it has clear physical and statistical significance and a better fitting effect on gust. In the forecasting of scale 8-9 gust, the average error and the average absolute error of the multiple regression method forecast are lower than the gust forecast by the ECMWF deterministic model, so the forecast effect is better than that of the ECMWF deterministic model in the process of cold air gale weather. At the same time, this method can also reflect the gust situation under the influence of typhoon, and could provide a reference for gust forecast over Chinese offshore areas.
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基金项目:国家重点研发计划(2018YFC1507205)、中国气象局创新发展专项(CXFZ2021Z081)和国家自然科学基金项目(4177050378)共同资助
引用文本:
胡海川,刘珺,林建,2022.基于预报方程的我国近海阵风预报[J].气象,48(3):334-344.
HU Haichuan,LIU Jun,LIN Jian,2022.Application of Prediction Equation to Gust Forecasting for Chinese Offshore Areas[J].Meteor Mon,48(3):334-344.