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气象:2022,48(3):284-298
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气候变暖背景下气候平均值更替对中国气候业务的影响
晏红明,袁媛,王永光
(云南省气候中心,昆明 650034; 国家气候中心,中国气象局气候研究开放实验室,北京 100081)
Influence of Climatological Mean Value Change on Climate Operation in China Under the Global Warming
YAN Hongming,YUAN Yuan,WANG Yongguang
(Yunnan Climate Center, Kunming 650034; Laboratory for Climate Studies, National Climate Centre, CMA, Beijing 100081)
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投稿时间:2021-05-19    修订日期:2021-11-19
中文摘要: 气候平均值的改变意味着气候平均态(以下简称气候态)的改变,由于不同气候态之间的差异,当气候态更替时,相应会改变各种气象要素、环流系统等变化特征的判识结果。不同气候态之间的差异越大,对判识结果的影响就会更加明显,这种影响即是气候态更替的影响。对于2022年1月1日执行的气候平均值由1981—2010年改为1991—2020年的新规定,将会对中国气候监测、预测和评价等业务产生怎样的影响?针对气候平均值的改变,分别从中国160个站气温和降水,以及大气环流和海洋关键因子的变化等多方面,首先对比分析了不同时段气候态变化的差异及影响,然后重点讨论了1991—2020年新气候态更替的影响。结果表明不同时段气候态更替的影响不同,其中气温气候态更替的影响比降水气候态更替的影响显著,这种影响存在一定的季节差异,冬半年的影响大于夏半年,而降水气候态更替的影响主要集中在4—6月和9—11月两个转换季节。分析气候态更替的影响,发现基于新气候态,中国大部分地区的气温距平减小,其中减小最明显的区域位于河套附近,幅度在0.3~0.7℃,对降水的影响主要在夏季和秋季,夏季中国南方和秋季华北多雨的特征减弱;对500 hPa大气环流的影响表现为冬季乌拉尔山脊加强、东亚槽偏东和蒙古高压减弱,而夏季则刚好相反;对东亚冬夏季风活动也有一定影响,表现为冬季风减弱,而夏季风加强;对海洋关键海区海温变化的影响表现为IOD正位相减弱和Ni〖AKn~D〗o1+2区海温距平指数偏高的特征。
Abstract:The change of climatological mean value indicates the change of climatic average state (hereinafter referred to as climatic state). Due to the difference between different climatic states, when one climate state changes, it will influence the judgment results of variation characteristics of various meteorological elements, atmospheric circulation system and so on. The greater the difference between different climatic states, the more obvious the impact on judgment results, which is the impact of climatic state replacement. How will the new regulation of changing the climate mean value from 1981-2010 to 1991-2020, which will be implemented on 1 January 2022, affect China’s climate monitoring, prediction and evaluation? This is a very concerned problem in our climate operation. In view of the change of the climatological mean value, this paper compares and analyzes the differences and impacts of climatic states in different periods from the aspects of temperature and precipitation at 160 stations in China as well as from the changes of atmospheric circulation and oceanic key factors and so on, and then focuses on the impacts of the new climatic state replacement of 1991-2020. The results show that the influence of climatic states in different periods is different, in which the influence of temperature climatic state replacement is more significant than that of precipitation climatic state replacement, and there are some seasonal differences in this influence. The influence in winter is greater than that in summer, while the influence of precipitation climatic state replacement is mainly concentrated in the two transition seasons of April-June and September-November. By analyzing the influence of the new climatic state, we found that the temperature anomaly in most parts of China decreases, and the maximum decrease area is near Hetao region, with a decrease range of 0.3-0.7℃. The influence of precipitation climatic state replacement mainly occurs in summer and autumn, and the rainy characteristic in southern China in summer and in northern China in autumn weakens; The influence of height climatic state replacement on 500 hPa atmospheric circulation shows that in winter Ural Mountains ridge is strengthened, the East Asian trough is more eastward and the Mongolian high is weakened, while the situation is just the opposite in summer. In terms of the influence on monsoons, the East Asian winter monsoon is weakened, but the summer monsoon is strengthened. In addition, the IOD positive phase weakens and the sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly index in Ni〖AKn~D〗o1+2 region rises.
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基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(U1902209、41775073、42030603)、西南区域重点项目(2014-4)和中国气象局创新发展专项(CXFZ2021Z033)共同资助
引用文本:
晏红明,袁媛,王永光,2022.气候变暖背景下气候平均值更替对中国气候业务的影响[J].气象,48(3):284-298.
YAN Hongming,YUAN Yuan,WANG Yongguang,2022.Influence of Climatological Mean Value Change on Climate Operation in China Under the Global Warming[J].Meteor Mon,48(3):284-298.