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气象:2021,47(12):1484-1500
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基于城市水文模型模拟的暴雨积涝灾害风险预警研究
扈海波,孟春雷,程丛兰,张西雅
(北京城市气象研究院,北京 100089)
Research on Urban Flash Flood Risk Warning Based on Urban Hydrological Model Simulation
HU Haibo,MENG Chunlei,CHENG Conglan,ZHANG Xiya
(Institute of Urban Meteorology, CMA, Beijing 100089)
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投稿时间:2020-12-21    修订日期:2021-07-20
中文摘要: 以土地利用及土地覆盖分类(透水及不透水地表组成)及格点化城市管网排水能力为水文模型主要输入参数,以雷达反演及外推雨量为强迫,模拟城市地表水反应过程及水动力过程,提出在城市水文模型基础上发展城市暴雨积涝风险预警及预报应用。水动力模型以二维浅水方程为基础,用变向隐式法分别在x轴和y轴方向上分两步求解差分方程。此演算方法具回水效应,间接实现了径流路径搜索的多重路径寻向,还原城市地表径流紊流、分流及散流较多的状况。研究分别以在线及脱线方式做了基于城市水文模型的模拟及检验分析。在线模式研究以2012年北京“7·21”暴雨为个例,用雷达定量降水估计强迫到城市水文模型中演算网格积水深度, 模拟“7·21”暴雨积涝情景,发现模拟结果基本反映当天的积水及积涝发生情况;脱线模式模拟则侧重计算城市地区不同风险等级暴雨积涝的临界雨量值(风险阈值),尤其是积涝易发点的风险阈值。研究推导出北京地区49个积涝易发点积水深度分别达到0.2、0.5、0.8和1.2 m时的1、3和6 h的临界雨量,并以此作为北京地区暴雨积涝“蓝黄橙红”四个预警等级的划定标准。
Abstract:The urban hydrological model is introduced into the urban flash flood forecasts and warning operation. The data of land use and land cover types and gridded urban drainage network capacity are parameterized in the model. Forced by the radar rainfall estimates, the model simulates the urban surface hydrological response and hydraulic processes. The hydraulic model is based on the shallow water equation, and the alternating-direction-implicit is used to solve the differential equation by two steps in the x direction and y direction, respectively. This solution comprises the back water effects in simulation and indirectly emulates the multiple flow direction methods, recalling the surface water dispersion in turbulence or diffusional effects. The case study demonstrates the online and offline running of the urban hydrological model for the purpose of flash flood warning, partially for the model validation. The online hydrological model takes the case study on the 21 July 2012 thunderstorm in Beijing, in which the radar quantitative-rainfall estimates are forced on the model for reproducing the gridded inundation mappings. The model simulation results resemble the flash flood scenarios of the waterloggings and water inundations on the 21 July 2012 thunderstorm day. The offline model simulation addresses measuring the rainfall intensity threshold for the ranked risks of the storm producing flash floods, especially the rainfall intensity thresholds for floods-susceptible places (FSPs). Therefore, the hydrological model simulation deduces the 1 h, 3 h and 6 h cumulative rainfall thresholds inducing water inundation depths over 0.2 m, 0.5 m, 0.8 m and 1.2 m in more than 49 FSPs, which are the rainfall intensity thresholds of the flash flood warning in the blue, yellow, orange and red signals, respectively.
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基金项目:国家重点研发计划( 2019YFB2102901)、国家自然科学基金项目(41875125)和中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费专项基金项目(IUMKY2020)共同资助
引用文本:
扈海波,孟春雷,程丛兰,张西雅,2021.基于城市水文模型模拟的暴雨积涝灾害风险预警研究[J].气象,47(12):1484-1500.
HU Haibo,MENG Chunlei,CHENG Conglan,ZHANG Xiya,2021.Research on Urban Flash Flood Risk Warning Based on Urban Hydrological Model Simulation[J].Meteor Mon,47(12):1484-1500.