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气象:2021,47(11):1416-1425
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基于不同灾害数据的1985—2019年南亚和东南亚洪水变化特征分析
王毅,刘爽,周庆亮,包红军,尹宜舟,杨琨
(国家气象中心,北京 100081;国家气候中心,北京 100081)
Analysis of Variation Characteristics of Floods in South Asia and Southeast Asia During 1985-2019 Using Different Disaster Databases
WANG Yi,LIU Shuang,ZHOU Qingliang,BAO Hongjun,YIN Yizhou,YANG Kun
(National Meteorological Centre, Beijing 100081;National Climate Centre, Beijing 100081)
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投稿时间:2020-05-14    修订日期:2021-09-13
中文摘要: 基于紧急灾害数据库(EM-DAT)和达特茅斯洪水实验室的灾害数据,对比分析1985—2019年南亚、东南亚洪水灾害的频次、强度及造成的人口损失的变化特征,并探讨与热带气旋相关的洪水灾害的变化趋势,结果发现:近35年东南亚地区洪水发生频次总体比南亚地区多15%左右,其中与热带气旋相关的洪水发生频次,东南亚地区约是南亚地区的4倍;与热带气旋相关的洪水事件约占东南亚地区所有洪水灾害事件的20%;月际分布表明南亚地区洪水灾害集中发生在6—8月,“单峰”特征明显,而其与热带气旋相关的洪水频次呈“双峰”结构;东南亚的洪水灾害年内分布相对均匀;基于两种数据平均后的洪水趋势检验表明,近35年南亚、东南亚洪水的频次均呈显著增加趋势,而每次洪水灾害造成的损失人口数则显著减少;东南亚地区平均洪水灾害的强度略小于南亚地区,但东南亚地区洪水灾害的强度近35年有显著增加趋势。此外,基于EM-DAT数据统计的近35年东南亚和南亚洪水灾害造成的经济损失均表现出明显增加趋势。
Abstract:Based on Emergency Events Database (EM-DAT) and Dartmouth Flood Observatory disaster datasets, this study compares the variation characteristics of frequency, magnitude and fatalities of floods in South Asia and Southeast Asia during 1985-2019. The trends of tropical cyclone (TC)-associated floods are also discussed. The results show that frequency of floods in Southeast Asia is about 15% more than that in South Asia for recent 35 years. Among all floods, the frequency of TC-associated floods in Southeast Asia is around 4 times more than that in South Asia. The TC-associated floods account for test of averaged floods by two databases indicates that both floods in South Asia and Southeast Asia have significantly increased in occurrence frequency over recent 35 years but the flood-induced fatalities per flood event have decreased significantly. On average, the magnitude of floods in Southeast Asia is smaller than that in South Asia, but there is a significant increasing trend in the magnitude of floods in Southeast Asia during recent 35 years. In addition, both economic losses of floods in South Asia and Southeast Asia based on EM-DAT data exhibit obvious increasing trend over the past 35 years. approximately 20% of all floods in Southeast Asia. Monthly distribution shows that floods in South Asia concentrate in June-August, exhibiting a unimodal pattern while TC-associated floods in South Asia present a bimodal distribution. Floods in Southeast Asia are evenly distributed throughout the year. The trend
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基金项目:国家重点研发计划(2020YFE0201900和2017YFC1502004)、国家自然科学基金项目(41975100)共同资助
引用文本:
王毅,刘爽,周庆亮,包红军,尹宜舟,杨琨,2021.基于不同灾害数据的1985—2019年南亚和东南亚洪水变化特征分析[J].气象,47(11):1416-1425.
WANG Yi,LIU Shuang,ZHOU Qingliang,BAO Hongjun,YIN Yizhou,YANG Kun,2021.Analysis of Variation Characteristics of Floods in South Asia and Southeast Asia During 1985-2019 Using Different Disaster Databases[J].Meteor Mon,47(11):1416-1425.