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气象:2021,47(10):1277-1288
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2021年春季我国气候异常特征及可能成因分析
刘芸芸,高辉
(国家气候中心,中国气象局气候研究开放实验室,北京 100081; 南京信息工程大学气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心,南京 210044)
Features and Possible Causes of Climate Anomalies in China in Spring 2021
LIU Yunyun,GAO Hui
(Laboratory for Climate Studies, National Climate Centre, CMA, Beijing 100081; Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044)
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投稿时间:2021-06-17    修订日期:2021-08-26
中文摘要: 利用中国站点降水和气温资料、NCEP/NCAR大气再分析资料和海温数据,总结了2021年春季(3—5月)我国气候异常特征,并初步分析了其可能成因。2021年春季全国平均气温为11.6℃,为1961年以来第四暖,但4月我国中部地区出现阶段性气温偏低;全国平均降水量为145.3 mm,接近常年同期,但季内阶段性变化显著,这与环流的阶段性调整密切相关。3—4月亚洲中纬度环流为“东高西低”型,副热带高压偏弱偏东,有利于来自西北太平洋的水汽向长江以北输送,降水呈“北多南少”分布。5月中纬度环流转变为“东低西高”型,副热带高压西伸北扩,低层西南暖湿气流增强,在江南、华南强烈辐合上升,为强对流天气的频繁发生提供了有利条件,降水调整为“南多北少”分布。此外4月中旬开始,中高纬阻塞活动逐渐频繁,一方面导致我国中部地区气温阶段性偏低,另一方面也是造成南方强对流天气发生的重要因素之一。春季后期环流出现明显调整与高低纬度环流相互作用及热带海温的演变有关。4月中旬北极圈大气明显回暖,乌拉尔山高压脊增强,进而造成上述“东低西高”型环流异常;同时,随着5月热带印度洋的快速增暖,前期表现为对La Ni〖AKn~D〗a事件响应的东亚低纬度环流形势也出现明显调整,从而导致季内降水分布也发生了明显变化。
Abstract:Based on the precipitation and temperature data of national stations in China, NCEP/NCAR reanalysis and sea surface temperature data, the features and possible causes of climate anomalies in spring 2021 (March-April-May) in China are analyzed in this paper. In 2021, China experienced the fourth warmest spring since 1961 with an average temperature anomaly of 1.2℃, except that Central China was cooler than normal in April. The precipitation was near normal with a national average of 145.3 mm, but which the sub-seasonal periodic variation was quite significant, which is closely related to the periodic adjustment of circulation. From March to April, the mid-latitude circulation over Asia maintained an anomalous pattern of positive geopotential height (GPH) anomalies in the east of Lake Baikal but negative anomalies over the Ural Mountains. The Western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) was weaker and further eastward than normal, which was conducive to water vapor transportation from the Northwest Pacific to the north of the Yangtze River, resulting in more precipitation in northern China but less precipitation in South China and Southwest China. However, the above patterns reversed in May, with positive GPH anomalies over the Ural Mountains and negative anomalies in Northeast Asia as well as the intensified and further northwestward WPSH. Correspondingly, the warm and humid southwesterly flow at lower-level strengthened, and the water vapor convergence and upward movement developed in southern China. This pattern was favorable for less precipitation in northern China while more precipitation in southern China, especially for frequent heavy rainstorms and severe convective weathers in the regions south of the Yangtze River. From mid-April, blocking activities in mid-high latitudes occurred frequently, causing a low-temperature anomaly in central China temporarily, and also becoming one of the important factors for the severe convective weather in southern China. The adjustment of atmospheric circulation in late spring is related to the interaction between high and low latitude circulation and the tropical SST evolution. In mid-April, the Arctic Area warmed up and the high ridge over the Ural Mountains strengthened, resulting in the above circulation transition in late spring. Meanwhile, with the rapid warming of the tropical Inian Ocean in May, the low latitude circulation situation in East Asia responding to the La Ni〖AKn~D〗a Event in the early stage was also significantly adjusted, thus leading to the significant variation in the distribution of sub-seasonal precipitation.
文章编号:     中图分类号:P461    文献标志码:
基金项目:广东省基础与应用基础研究重大项目(2020B0301030004)和国家自然科学基金项目(42175056)共同资助
引用文本:
刘芸芸,高辉,2021.2021年春季我国气候异常特征及可能成因分析[J].气象,47(10):1277-1288.
LIU Yunyun,GAO Hui,2021.Features and Possible Causes of Climate Anomalies in China in Spring 2021[J].Meteor Mon,47(10):1277-1288.