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气象:2021,47(8):1009-1020
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2019年西北太平洋台风活动特征和预报难点分析
王海平,董林,许映龙,聂高臻
(国家气象中心,北京 100081; 中国科学院大学,北京 100049)
Analysis on the Characteristics of Typhoon Activity and Forecasting Difficulties in Western North Pacific in 2019
WANG Haiping,DONG Lin,XU Yinglong,NIE Gaozhen
(National Meteorological Centre, Beijing 100081; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049)
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投稿时间:2020-09-17    修订日期:2021-06-28
中文摘要: 2019年在西北太平洋及南海共生成台风29个,比多年同期平均偏多2个,其中6个台风登陆我国,比多年平均偏少1个;台风整体强度偏弱,但全年最强台风夏浪极值强度达到68 m·s-1(17级以上);登陆台风整体强度偏弱,但“利奇马”登陆强度强(52 m·s-1,超强台风级)、影响重;秋季台风生成数较常年明显偏多,尤其是11月生成台风数达到6个。2019年中央气象台台风路径预报平均误差与近5年(2014—2018年)的平均误差相比,在24~72 h的预报误差有所增大,而96~120 h的预报误差则明显减小,尤其是120 h的预报准确率创新高。与日、美官方预报相比,中国在24 h和96~120 h的预报水平处于领先地位,在48~72 h的预报误差比日本略高,但低于美国,与EC确定性模式相当。
Abstract:A total of 29 typhoons were generated over western North Pacific and South China Sea in 2019, 2 more than the multi year average of 27 in the same period, of which 6 typhoons landed in China, 1 less than the normal average of 7 in the same period. The overall strength of the landfall 〖JP2〗typhoon was weak rela 〖JP〗tively, but the landfall intensity of “Lekima” was strong (52 m·s-1), reaching the scale of super typhoon. Autumn typhoons were obviously more, especially, there were 6 typhoons in November, the most typhoons in November since 1949. Compared with the average error of the past 5 years (2014-2018), the typhoon track forecast error by the National Meteorological Centre in 2019, was increased in the 24-72 h forecast, while the forecast error of 96-120 h was greatly reduced. Compared with JMA (Japan Meteorological Agency) and the JTWC (Joint Typhoon Warning Center), CMA is in the leading position in the prediction level of 24 h and 96-120 h, the prediction error of 48-72 h is equivalent to the EC deterministic model, slightly higher than that of JMA, but lower than that of the JTWC.
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基金项目:中国气象局气象预报业务关键技术发展专项[YBGJXM(2018)06]、中国气象局数值预报(GRAPES)发展专项共同资助
引用文本:
王海平,董林,许映龙,聂高臻,2021.2019年西北太平洋台风活动特征和预报难点分析[J].气象,47(8):1009-1020.
WANG Haiping,DONG Lin,XU Yinglong,NIE Gaozhen,2021.Analysis on the Characteristics of Typhoon Activity and Forecasting Difficulties in Western North Pacific in 2019[J].Meteor Mon,47(8):1009-1020.