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气象:2021,47(6):717-726
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1980—2018年青海高原冰雹分布特征及其关键影响因素分析
冯晓莉,马占良,管琴,刘彩红
(青海省气候中心,西宁 810001; 青海省气象台,西宁 810001)
Spatio Temporal Characteristics of Hail and Its Influence Factors in Qinghai Plateau During 1980-2018
FENG Xiaoli,MA Zhanliang,GUAN Qin,LIU Caihong
(Qinghai Climate Centre, Xining 810001; Qinghai Meteorological Observatory, Xining 810001)
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投稿时间:2020-06-16    修订日期:2021-02-24
中文摘要: 基于青海高原50个地面气象观测站点1980—2018年的观测数据,结合欧洲中心ERA Interim再分析资料,利用线性倾向估计、皮尔逊相关分析以及概率密度分布等方法,揭示青海高原降雹频次、大小、持续时间的时空分布特征,以及海拔高度、特殊层高度和气温变化对冰雹分布特征的影响。结果表明:近39年来,青海高原年降雹次数总体表现为显著减少趋势,进入21世纪后减少尤为明显,6—7月冰雹高发且减少速率为年内最快,平均单次降雹持续时间亦呈显著减少趋势,20世纪90年代中后期开始,较大冰雹发生概率明显增大;空间分布上,南部高海拔地区为冰雹高发区,降雹持续时间也较长,大冰雹落区主要在冰雹次数较少的东部低海拔地区;直径介于3~5 mm以及持续时长在2~3 min左右的降雹频率最高;较低的0℃和-20℃ 层高度有利于冰雹生成并且延长降雹持续时间,较高的0℃和-20℃层高度对支撑空中冰雹的碰并增长具有重要作用;降雹频次和降雹持续时间显著减少不仅与0℃和-20℃层高度上升有关,还与平均气温显著升高、气温日较差减小密切相关。
Abstract:By using the daily data from 50 stations and ERA-Interim reanalysis data in Qinghai Plateau during 1980-2018, and the methods of linear regression, Pearson correlation analysis and probability density distribution, this paper analyzed the spatio-temporal characteristics of hail frequency, hail diameter, hail duration, and the effects of elevations, special layer heights, and surface temperature on hail. The results demonstrate that the mean hail frequency in Qinghai Plateau has decreased significantly in the recent 39 years, especially since 2000. Hail events are most seen in June and July, with a fast decline rate in a year. The mean single time hail duration has decreased significantly, while the occurrence of large hail events has increased since the middle-late of 1990s. From the spatial distribution, the high value areas of hail frequency and duration are in the south part of Qinghai Plateau with high elevation, while the high value areas of mean hail diameter are in the eastern part of Qinghai Plateau with lower altitudes. The hail diameter in 3-5 mm〖JP〗 and duration 2-3 min of hail events have the highest frequeney. The lower 0℃ and -20℃ isotherm heights are favorable for hail formation and prolonging the hail duration. The higher 0℃ and -20℃ isotherm heights play an important role in supporting the collision and growth of hail in the air. The decreases of hail frequency and hail duration are related to the significant increase in mean surface air temperature and decrease in diurnal temperature range as well as the rising of 0℃ and -20℃ layer heights.
文章编号:     中图分类号:P467    文献标志码:
基金项目:国家重点研发计划(2018YFC1505705)、青海省科技厅基础研究项目(2020-ZJ-739)、国家自然科学基金项目(42065003和42075017)、青海省气象局重点项目(QXZ2020-003)共同资助
引用文本:
冯晓莉,马占良,管琴,刘彩红,2021.1980—2018年青海高原冰雹分布特征及其关键影响因素分析[J].气象,47(6):717-726.
FENG Xiaoli,MA Zhanliang,GUAN Qin,LIU Caihong,2021.Spatio Temporal Characteristics of Hail and Its Influence Factors in Qinghai Plateau During 1980-2018[J].Meteor Mon,47(6):717-726.