###
气象:2021,47(6):655-670
本文二维码信息
码上扫一扫!
中央气象台精细化网格降水预报技术的发展和思考
谌芸,曹勇,孙健,符娇兰,董全,于超,刘凑华,唐健,郭云谦
(国家气象中心,北京 100081; 南方海洋科学与工程广东省实验室(珠海),珠海 519082)
Progress of Fine Gridded Quantitative Precipitation Forecast Technology of National Meteorological Centre
CHEN Yun,CAO Yong,SUN Jian,FU Jiaolan,DONG Quan,YU Chao,LIU Couhua,TANG Jian,GUO Yunqian
(National Meteorological Centre, Beijing 100081; Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai), Zhuhai 519082)
摘要
图/表
参考文献
相似文献
本文已被:浏览 26次   下载 188
投稿时间:2020-06-20    修订日期:2021-01-06
中文摘要: 定量降水预报(QPF)是中央气象台最传统且最核心的天气预报业务,随着经济社会的快速发展对降水预报精细化程度需求越来越高,提升降水预报的精细化水平成为中央气象台面临和需要解决的首要问题之一。目前中央气象台制作和发布空间分辨率5 km,未来3天逐1 h时间间隔、未来10天逐3 h时间间隔的网格化定量降水预报产品,并发布雨、雨夹雪、冻雨和雪降水相态及新增积雪深度的精细化预报产品。本文围绕精细化降水预报技术这一关键环节,回顾了中央气象台在数值模式精细化降水预报、时空精细化降水预报技术、降水相态和新增积雪精细化预报技术以及精细化检验评估技术等方面的进展,并思考目前精细化降水预报业务技术发展存在的问题及未来的发展,以期为中央气象台和全国精细化QPF技术的发展提供重要参考。
Abstract:Quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) is the traditional and critical forecasting operation of National Meteorological Centre (NMC). With the rapid development of society and economy and its increasing demand in the fineness of various meteorological products, developing the fine gridded QPF has become the primary task of NMC. A fine gridded QPF product system with a spatial resolution of 5 km and 1 h 〖JP2〗interval for 3 d lead time and 3 h interval for 3-10 d lead time has been built, which covers rain, sleet, freezing rain, snow and depth of new snowfall forecast. This paper presents the progress of the related technology development in high resolution numerical weather forecast model, fine gridded QPF, gridded precipitation type and depth of new snowfall forecast and refined QPF verification. Finally, the existing problems and future developments of the current fine gridded QPF technology are discussed.
文章编号:     中图分类号:P456    文献标志码:
基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(41975001)和国家重点研发计划(2017YFC1502501、2017YFC1502103)共同资助
引用文本:
谌芸,曹勇,孙健,符娇兰,董全,于超,刘凑华,唐健,郭云谦,2021.中央气象台精细化网格降水预报技术的发展和思考[J].气象,47(6):655-670.
CHEN Yun,CAO Yong,SUN Jian,FU Jiaolan,DONG Quan,YU Chao,LIU Couhua,TANG Jian,GUO Yunqian,2021.Progress of Fine Gridded Quantitative Precipitation Forecast Technology of National Meteorological Centre[J].Meteor Mon,47(6):655-670.