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气象:2020,46(12):1555-1564
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统计降尺度方法在华西南区秋季降水预测中的应用
吴遥,唐红玉,刘颖,董新宁,郭渠
(重庆市气候中心,重庆 401147; 国家气候中心气候研究开放实验室,北京 100081)
Application of Statistical Downscaling Model to Autumn Rainfall Forecasting over Southwest China
WU Yao,TANG Hongyu,LIU Ying,DONG Xinning,GUO Qu
(Chongqing Climate Centre, Chongqing 401147; Laboratory for Climate Studies, National Climate Centre, Beijing 100081)
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投稿时间:2019-07-02    修订日期:2020-07-18
中文摘要: 针对华西南区秋季站点降水,建立了基于气候预测系统CFS模式实时预测产品与观测资料相结合的统计降尺度预测模型。模型选取了华西南区秋季降水物理意义比较明确的秋季500 hPa位势高度场和前期夏季海温场作为预测因子,两个因子关键区分别为10°S~50°N/70°~180°E和30°S~30°N/30°~120°E。预测因子与预测量之间的SVD第一模态时间系数具有高度相关性,在500 hPa位势高度场和海温场上均通过了0.01的显著性水平检验。模型对1982—2017年的回报结果显示:与观测场的空间相关系数相对CFS模式原始结果显著提高,多年均值从-0.06提升到0.38,最高可达0.7;均方根误差在大部站点相对于CFS模式原始结果降低,最高可达40%。同时,模型较好地回报出了极端高值和低值年降水空间分布型。
Abstract:A statistical downscaling model for forecasting autumn rainfall at stations over Southwest China was established in this study based on real-time prediction of numerical products from the Climate Forecast System (CFS) and observation data. The autumn 500 hPa geopotential height from CFS and summer sea surface temperature from reanalysis data, which are relatively clear in physics for autumn rainfall over Southwest China, were selected as the two predictors. The key regions of the two predictors are 10°S-50°N/70°-180°E and 30°S-30°N/30°-120°E. There exist high correlations of time coefficient of first leading SVD modes between predictors and observation. The correlation coefficients have passed the 0.01 significance level test on the 500 hPa geopotential height field and the 0.001 significance level test on the sea surface temperature field. The statistical downscaling hindcast for the 1982-2017 result shows that the spatial correlation coefficient can improve the performance of prediction compared with that of the original CFS, and multi-year mean is increased from -0.06 to 0.38 with the maximum getting up to 0.7. The root mean square error decreases in comparison with the output of original CFS at most stations with the maximum being 40%. At the same time, the statistical downscaling hindcasts on spatial pattern of extreme minimum and maximum are fine.
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基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(41875111),中国气象局核心业务发展专项[YBGJXM(2019)06-06],中国气象局西南区域气象中心重大科研业务项目(西南区域2014-1)和中国气象局数值模式发展专项[YBSZMSXM(2019)-03]共同资助
引用文本:
吴遥,唐红玉,刘颖,董新宁,郭渠,2020.统计降尺度方法在华西南区秋季降水预测中的应用[J].气象,46(12):1555-1564.
WU Yao,TANG Hongyu,LIU Ying,DONG Xinning,GUO Qu,2020.Application of Statistical Downscaling Model to Autumn Rainfall Forecasting over Southwest China[J].Meteor Mon,46(12):1555-1564.