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气象:2020,46(12):1529-1542
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上海快速更新同化数值预报系统(SMS-WARR)的近地面风速预报检验评估
薛文博,余晖,汤胜茗,黄伟,姜文东,周象贤,陆逸
(中国气象科学研究院,北京 100081; 中国气象局上海台风研究所,上海 200030; 国网浙江省电力有限公司,杭州 310007; 国网浙江省电力有限公司电力科学研究院,杭州 310014)
Verification on Surface Wind Speed Forecast of Shanghai Meteorological Service-WRF ADAS Rapid Refresh System (SMS-WARR)
XUE Wenbo,YU Hui,TANG Shengming,HUANG Wei,JIANG Wendong,ZHOU Xiangxian,LU Yi
(Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081; Shanghai Typhoon Institute, CMA, Shanghai 200030; State Grid Zhejiang Electric Power Co. LTD, Hangzhou 310007; Research Institute, State Grid Zhejiang Electric Power Co. LTD, Hangzhou 310014)
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投稿时间:2019-09-23    修订日期:2020-10-19
中文摘要: 对上海快速更新同化数值预报系统(Shanghai Meteorological Service-WRF ADAS Rapid Refresh System,SMS-WARR)的10 m预报风速进行分级检验评估,在此基础上进一步研究了台风影响期间的风速预报误差特征,并探讨了误差的可能成因。结果表明: SMS-WARR在各预报时效都存在对实测小于6级的风预报偏大,对6级及以上的风预报偏小的特点;随着预报时效的增长,小于6级风的预报评分降低,6级及以上风的评分增大;预报风速与实测风速在5%~90%分位数之间的分布呈明显的线性相关。在台风影响期间,SMS-WARR预报的强风区域与实际位置基本符合,但范围明显偏大, 预报偏差大值区主要集中在预报强风区域。这些误差特征与模式冷、热启动方案的设置、模式对台风快速增强的预报能力较弱等有关。
Abstract:In order to evaluate the wind speed forecast ability of Shanghai Meteorological Service-WRF ADAS Rapid Refresh System (SMS-WARR), the 10 m wind was divided into three levels to analyze the error characteristics and corresponding causes of formation, especially during the period of typhoon influence. The results show that the SMS-WARR model overestimates the wind weaker than Grade 6 and underestimates the wind stronger than or equal to Grade 6 in each lead time. The wind speed forecast score decreases for the wind weaker than Grade 6 and increases for the wind stronger than or equal to Grade 6 with the increase of lead time. The forecast and observed wind speeds are obviously linearly correlated between 5%-90% quartiles. During the period of typhoon influence, the area of strong wind (Grade 6) is much larger than the area where the strong wind was actually measured. The area of large deviation is mainly distributed in the area of forecast strong wind. These error characteristics may be related to the scheme setting of the cold and hot starting of the model and the model’s weak predictability to the wind field during the rapid strengthening phase of typhoons.
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基金项目:国网浙江省电力有限公司科技项目(5211DS18002P)、国家重点研发计划(2018YFB1501104)、国家重点基础研究发展计划(2015CB452806)、国家自然科学基金项目(41805088)和上海市自然科学基金(18ZR1449100)共同资助
引用文本:
薛文博,余晖,汤胜茗,黄伟,姜文东,周象贤,陆逸,2020.上海快速更新同化数值预报系统(SMS-WARR)的近地面风速预报检验评估[J].气象,46(12):1529-1542.
XUE Wenbo,YU Hui,TANG Shengming,HUANG Wei,JIANG Wendong,ZHOU Xiangxian,LU Yi,2020.Verification on Surface Wind Speed Forecast of Shanghai Meteorological Service-WRF ADAS Rapid Refresh System (SMS-WARR)[J].Meteor Mon,46(12):1529-1542.