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气象:2020,46(10):1261-1271
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基于多模式QPF融合的台风暴雨预报后处理技术研究及应用试验
陈博宇,代刊,唐健,郭云谦,钱奇峰
(国家气象中心,北京 100081)
Research and Application Experiment on Post Processing Technology of Typhoon Rainstorm Forecast Based on Multi Model QPF Fusion
CHEN Boyu,DAI Kan,TANG Jian,GUO Yunqian,QIAN Qifeng
(National Meteorological Centre, Beijing 100081)
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投稿时间:2019-10-08    修订日期:2020-06-05
中文摘要: 以2018年主要登陆台风暴雨过程为研究对象,利用多中心多模式(ECMWF、NCEP降水和台风路径集合预报及业务细网格模式,国内主要业务区域模式GRAPES Meso、GRAPES 3 km、RMAPS、SMS WARMS)预报及国家气象中心实时台风中心定位和路径预报,在统计检验和偏差分析的基础上,对前期已业务应用的基于观测的集合成员优选技术进行改进,以期获得更高分辨率和准确率的台风降水客观预报产品。结果显示,改进后的客观产品空间分辨率较前期有明显提升,预报准确率较ECMWF和NCEP业务模式确定性预报有明显提高,TS评分提高率在15%~20%,同时也高于各业务区域模式预报,且暴雨TS评分略高于同期预报员主观预报。此外,研究表明,该客观产品的预报准确率对参考路径的选取有较强的依赖性,依据实时台风中心定位优选出3~5个成员形成集合平均路径,将其作为参考路径的试验评分要高于以所有成员的集合平均路径为参考的试验评分。集合成员优选技术和以概率匹配方法为基础的QPF融合技术对改进全球和区域模式的台风暴雨预报有明显的帮助。
Abstract:Based on statistical verification and forecast bias analysis on the rainstorm processes of landed typhoons in 2018, we improve the observation based ensemble subsetting technique that has been applied on operational forecast, to obtain objective products of typhoon precipitation with higher resolution and forecast accuracy, using multi model forecasts from several centers, the real time typhoon locations and track forecasts from National Meteorological Centre. The multi model forecasts include precipitation and typhoon track ensemble forecasts and operational high resolution forecasts from ECMWF and NCEP, the forecasts of main regional models (GRAPES Meso, GRAPES 3 km, RMAPS, SMS WARMS) in China. The results show that the spatial resolution of the improved objective product is significantly promoted compared with the previous version. The forecast accuracy is also significantly improved compared with the operational deterministic forecast from ECMWF and NCEP, and the improvement rate is 15%-20% roughly. The threat score of the improved objective product is also higher than the forecast of regional models, and slightly higher than the QPF of forecaster. In addition, studies have shown that the accuracy of the improved objective product has a high correlation with the selection of reference track. The threat score of objective product based on the average track of 3 to 5 best members is higher than the one based on the average track of all members. The observation based ensemble subsetting and QPF fusion technique based on probability matching, is helpful for improving 〖JP2〗the typhoon rainstorm forecast of the global and regional models.
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基金项目:国家重点研发计划(2017YFC1502004、2018YFC1506402)共同资助
引用文本:
陈博宇,代刊,唐健,郭云谦,钱奇峰,2020.基于多模式QPF融合的台风暴雨预报后处理技术研究及应用试验[J].气象,46(10):1261-1271.
CHEN Boyu,DAI Kan,TANG Jian,GUO Yunqian,QIAN Qifeng,2020.Research and Application Experiment on Post Processing Technology of Typhoon Rainstorm Forecast Based on Multi Model QPF Fusion[J].Meteor Mon,46(10):1261-1271.