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气象:2020,46(9):1210-1221
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ECMWF降水相态预报产品(PTYPE)应用和检验
董全,胡宁,宗志平
(国家气象中心,北京 100081)
Application and Verification of the ECMWF Precipitation Type Forecast Product (PTYPE)
DONG Quan,HU Ning,ZONG Zhiping
(National Meteorological Centre, Beijing 100081)
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投稿时间:2019-07-31    修订日期:2020-03-06
中文摘要: 运用我国2016—2018年三个冬半年(10月至次年3月)地面2 〖KG-*5〗515个站的天气现象观测资料,对ECMWF(European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts)的降水相态预报产品(PTYPE)(分为雨、雨夹雪、雪和冻雨四类)进行了系统性的检验评估,包括细网格确定性模式预报产品和集合预报系统概率预报产品。结果显示,ECMWF的确定性预报产品对四类降水相态的正确率普遍达到90%以上,对降雨和降雪的TS评分也较高,冻雨次之,雨夹雪的TS评分较低,预报能力有限。确定性模式对我国雨雪分界线的预报,普遍存在短期位置略偏南、中期随时效延长越来越偏北的误差特点,且对雨夹雪的预报范围明显偏小,对冻雨的预报范围明显偏大。集合预报系统从概率的角度一定程度上弥补了确定性模式的上述误差。对概率预报的检验结果显示,集合预报系统降雨概率普遍偏低,降雪概率短期偏高、中期偏低,而雨夹雪和冻雨概率普遍偏低,但是都有一定的预报技巧。集合预报系统相对于确定性模式的优势,降雨体现在较小花费损失比事件的预报上,降雪体现在较大花费损失比事件的预报上。对雨夹雪和冻雨,相对于确定性模式,集合预报系统体现出了显著的优势,尤其是冻雨,集合预报系统的优势更加明显。
Abstract:The ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) precipitation type forecast products (PTYPE) were verified using the weather observations of more than 2 〖KG-*5〗000 stations in China over the winter months (October to the next March) during 2016-2018. The products include the deterministic forecasts from high-resolution model (HRD) and the probability forecasts from ensemble prediction system (EPS) and the verified precipitation types include rain, sleet, snow and freezing rain. The results show that the accuracy of deterministic forecasts of ECMWF HRD is mostly higher than 90% and the TSs of rain and snow are the highest, followed by the TS of freezing rain, and the TS of sleet is lower, which indicates that the forecast skill of sleet is limited. The rain and snow dividing line of deterministic forecasts shows the errors of a little southward in short range forecast and more and more significant northward following elongating lead times in medium range forecast. The area of sleet forecast is smaller than observations and the area of freezing rain forecast is bigger for the HRD forecast. The EPS offsets these errors partly by probability forecast. The probability forecast of rain from the EPS is smaller than the observation frequency and the probability forecast of snow is larger in short range and smaller in medium range forecasts than the observation frequency. However, there are some forecast skills for all of these probability forecasts. There are advantages of EPS compared to the HRD. For rain and snow, for some special cost/loss ratio events the EPS is better than the HRD. For sleet and freezing rain, the EPS is better than the HRD significantly, especially for the freezing rain.
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基金项目:国家科技支撑计划(2015BAC03B03和2015BAC03B01)及国家重点研发计划(2017YFC1502004)共同资助
引用文本:
董全,胡宁,宗志平,2020.ECMWF降水相态预报产品(PTYPE)应用和检验[J].气象,46(9):1210-1221.
DONG Quan,HU Ning,ZONG Zhiping,2020.Application and Verification of the ECMWF Precipitation Type Forecast Product (PTYPE)[J].Meteor Mon,46(9):1210-1221.