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气象:2020,46(4):566-574
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2019年秋季我国气候异常及成因分析
孙林海,王永光
(国家气候中心,中国气象局气候研究开放实验室,北京 100081)
Features and Possible Causes of the Climatic Anormaly in China in Autumn 2019
SUN Linhai,WANG Yongguang
(Laboratory of Climate Studies, National Climate Centre, CMA, Beijing 100081)
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投稿时间:2020-01-22    修订日期:2020-03-03
中文摘要: 2019年秋季,我国大部地区气温较常年同期偏高,全国平均气温为1961年以来同期第三高;降水空间分布非常不均匀,呈“西多东少、北多南少”的特征。异常成因分析表明,秋季欧亚中高纬度槽脊活动频繁,冷空气势力接近常年同期,西太平洋副热带高压较常年同期偏强偏西偏北,副热带高压西段位于南海西侧上空,有利于西南暖湿水汽向我国西部地区输送,菲律宾东北部为较强的气旋距平环流控制,导致我国南方地区受偏北气流控制,水汽条件偏差。进一步研究表明,海温异常是影响2019年秋季我国气候异常的最主要外强迫因子,2019年7月弱的中部型El Ni〖AKn~D〗o事件结束,秋季海温分布偏向于中部型El Ni〖AKn~D〗o。东亚副热带环流显示出清晰的响应。
Abstract:During the autumn of 2019, the surface air temperatures were above normal in most areas in China, and it was the third warmest in the same period after 1961. The distribution of precipitation over China was more in the west and north, and less in the east and south of China. By analyzing the causes for the climatic anomaly, we found that in autumn, activities of ridges and troughs in middle and high latitudes of Eurasia were seen frequently, the cold air activity was near normal, and the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) was stronger and more northwestward than normal. The western part of WPSH was located over the west of the South China Sea, which was conducive to the southwest water vapor transportation to the western part of China. The northeast 〖JP2〗of the Philippines was under the control of strong cyclonic anomaly〖JP〗 circulation, making the southern part of China controlled by the northerly air flow and resulting in poor water vapor condition. Further studies show that the sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly was the major external forcing factor for the climatic anomalies in the autumn of 2019. In July 2019, the weak central Pacific type El Ni〖AKn~D〗o event ended, and the autumn SST distribution was inclined to the central type. The subtropical circulation in East Asia showed a clear response.
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基金项目:国家重点研发计划(2017YFA0603701)资助
引用文本:
孙林海,王永光,2020.2019年秋季我国气候异常及成因分析[J].气象,46(4):566-574.
SUN Linhai,WANG Yongguang,2020.Features and Possible Causes of the Climatic Anormaly in China in Autumn 2019[J].Meteor Mon,46(4):566-574.