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气象:2020,46(3):429-440
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台风大风低矮房屋易损性及智能网格预报的应用
杨绚,张立生,杨琨,王铸
(国家气象中心,北京 100081)
Typhoon Vulnerability of Typical Low-Rise Buildings and Application of Intelligent Grid Forecast
YANG Xuan,ZHANG Lisheng,YANG Kun,WANG Zhu
(National Meteorological Centre, Beijing 100081)
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投稿时间:2019-04-28    修订日期:2020-02-11
中文摘要: 低矮房屋是受台风影响最为严重的房屋类型之一。从建筑构件可靠性的角度,利用蒙特卡洛方法模拟典型双坡屋面小青瓦砖木结构的低矮房屋(以下简称为“低矮房屋”)不同构件对风速的易损性曲线,低矮房屋不同构件的大风易损性为:侧边>屋檐>迎风屋面>屋脊>侧边墙角>背风屋面。从而构建了台风大风对低矮房屋倒损概率模型,量化风灾对低矮房屋的风险。利用全球灯光数据(DMSP/OLS)对地面粗糙度进行分类,分析不同地面粗糙度低矮房屋易损性的差异。基于我国精细化智能网格预报产品,预估了2017年13号台风天鸽低矮房屋风险等级,并与实际灾情进行检验。结果表明,该模型的预估结果与实际灾情在广东中西部较为吻合,但在广东东部沿海地区产生了一定范围的空报,可能是智能网格风速预报产品在台风东侧风速偏大所导致,其预估结果的TS评分为0.28,空报率为0.62,漏报率为0.48,模型能够在一定程度上预估风灾对低矮房屋的倒损风险。
Abstract:Low rise buildings are most severely affected by typhoons. In this paper, based on the reliability design of building structures, Monte Carlo simulation method is used with a probabilistic framework to simulate the wind vulnerability on component of typical double sloping roofs with small blue and tile bricks (low rise building). The wind vulnerability of different components of low buildings is as follows: side of roof > eaves > windward roof > roof ridge > wall corner > leeward roof. A probability model of typhoon damage to low rise houses is constructed which can quantify the risk of wind disasters to low rise buildings. The ground roughness is classified by using DMSP/OLS data, and the difference of the vulnerability of low rise buildings with different ground roughness is analyzed. Based on the intelligent grid forecast, the risk of low rise building induced by Hato, the 13th typhoon in 2017, is estimated. The results are consistent with the actual disaster in the central and western Guangdong. However, partial area of false prediction is generated in the eastern coastal areas of Guangdong, which may be caused by excessive large speed of intelligent grid wind speed forecast products on the east side of Typhoon Hato. The TS score of the estimated results is 0.28, the false alarm 〖JP2〗ratio is 0.62, and prediction omission is 0.48. So, this 〖JP〗model could estimate the risk of wind damage to low rise buildings to a certain extent.
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基金项目:国家气象中心预报员专项(Y201920)和中国气象局决策气象服务专项(JCZX2020017)共同资助
引用文本:
杨绚,张立生,杨琨,王铸,2020.台风大风低矮房屋易损性及智能网格预报的应用[J].气象,46(3):429-440.
YANG Xuan,ZHANG Lisheng,YANG Kun,WANG Zhu,2020.Typhoon Vulnerability of Typical Low-Rise Buildings and Application of Intelligent Grid Forecast[J].Meteor Mon,46(3):429-440.