Abstract:Low rise buildings are most severely affected by typhoons. In this paper, based on the reliability design of building structures, Monte Carlo simulation method is used with a probabilistic framework to simulate the wind vulnerability on component of typical double sloping roofs with small blue and tile bricks (low rise building). The wind vulnerability of different components of low buildings is as follows: side of roof > eaves > windward roof > roof ridge > wall corner > leeward roof. A probability model of typhoon damage to low rise houses is constructed which can quantify the risk of wind disasters to low rise buildings. The ground roughness is classified by using DMSP/OLS data, and the difference of the vulnerability of low rise buildings with different ground roughness is analyzed. Based on the intelligent grid forecast, the risk of low rise building induced by Hato, the 13th typhoon in 2017, is estimated. The results are consistent with the actual disaster in the central and western Guangdong. However, partial area of false prediction is generated in the eastern coastal areas of Guangdong, which may be caused by excessive large speed of intelligent grid wind speed forecast products on the east side of Typhoon Hato. The TS score of the estimated results is 0.28, the false alarm 〖JP2〗ratio is 0.62, and prediction omission is 0.48. So, this 〖JP〗model could estimate the risk of wind damage to low rise buildings to a certain extent.