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投稿时间:2020-02-11 修订日期:2020-02-20
投稿时间:2020-02-11 修订日期:2020-02-20
中文摘要: 水文循环是地球上海洋、陆地和大气之间相互作用中最活跃且最重要的枢纽,受气候变化影响最为显著。本文回顾了气候变化对全球水文循环的影响,并对20世纪60年代以来中国降水、蒸散发、地表径流及大气水汽含量等陆地水文循环要素变化进行了评估。气候变暖使得全球水文循环加强,观测数据表明自1970年以来,全球对流层和地表水汽含量呈现增加趋势,但由于监测网络在空间覆盖和时间响应的限制,热带水汽增加与环流减弱之间相互影响,使得气候变化对区域水文循环的影响不确定性较大。在全球气候变化背景下,中国水文循环符合全球水循环变化的特征,又表现出更为复杂的区域特征,各个流域间空间差异增大。大气水汽含量在80年代后呈现上升的趋势;60年代以来,中国降水平均态虽然无明显变化但空间差异显著增加,实际蒸散发平均值微弱增加,空间差异增大,地表径流空间差异增大,某些流域呈现减少趋势。21世纪以来,由蒸散发再凝结形成的降水量增加,大气内循环活跃程度加大。
中文关键词: 水文循环,气候变化,中国,全球
Abstract:Water cycle, which is significantly affected by climate change, is the most active and important part in the interaction among ocean, land and atmosphere. This paper reviews the impact of climate change on global water cycle, and evaluates the changes of water cycle elements including atmospheric water vapor, precipitation, evapotranspiration and surface runoff and water vapor in China since the 1960s. Climate warming has strengthened the global water cycle, showing that global near surface and tropospheric speci fic humidity have increased since 1970s. However, due to the insufficient observation, the trend of various variables in the water cycle still remains considerably uncertain. Moreover, due to interaction between the increase of tropical water vapor and the weakening of the circulation, the influence of climate change on regional water cycle is more uncertain. Obvious changes of regional water cycle in China have been found since 1960s. The atmospheric water vapor and its budget show up an increasing trend after 1980s. No obvious changes in total precipitation, but largely spatial difference of regional precipitation can be found in China since 1960s. Moreover, average evapotranspiration increases slightly, while the mean surface runoff decreases. Since the 21st Century, the precipitation transformed from evapotranspiration has been increa sing, and the internal water cycle is more active than before.
文章编号: 中图分类号: 文献标志码:
基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(41907398)和第四次气候变化国家评估报告共同资助
作者 | 单位 |
姜彤 | 南京信息工程大学地理科学学院/灾害风险管理研究院,南京 210044 |
孙赫敏 | 南京信息工程大学地理科学学院/灾害风险管理研究院,南京 210044 北京市气象探测中心,北京 100089 |
李修仓 | 国家气候中心,北京 100081 |
苏布达 | 国家气候中心,北京 100081 |
引用文本:
姜彤,孙赫敏,李修仓,苏布达,2020.气候变化对水文循环的影响[J].气象,46(3):289-300.
JIANG Tong,SUN Hemin,LI Xiucang,SU Buda,2020.Impact of Climate Change on Water Cycle[J].Meteor Mon,46(3):289-300.
姜彤,孙赫敏,李修仓,苏布达,2020.气候变化对水文循环的影响[J].气象,46(3):289-300.
JIANG Tong,SUN Hemin,LI Xiucang,SU Buda,2020.Impact of Climate Change on Water Cycle[J].Meteor Mon,46(3):289-300.