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气象:2020,46(2):223-233
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2018年长江上游严重洪涝的气象水文特征
高琦,徐明,彭涛,万蓉
(武汉中心气象台,武汉 430074; 中国气象局武汉暴雨研究所暴雨监测预警湖北省重点实验室,武汉 430205; 长江流域气象中心,武汉 430074)
Meteorological and Hydrological Characteristics of Severe Floods over the Upper Yangtze River Basin in 2018
GAO Qi,XU Ming,PENG Tao,WAN Rong
(Wuhan Central Meteorological Observatory, Wuhan 430074; Hubei Key Laboratory for Heavy Rain Monitoring and Warning Reseach, Institute of Heavy Rain, CMA, Wuhan 430205; Meteorological Center of the Yangtze River Basin, Wuhan 430074)
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投稿时间:2018-11-06    修订日期:2019-09-23
中文摘要: 利用NCEP/NCAR再分析资料及常规气象水文实况观测资料,分析了2018年6—7月长江上游严重洪涝期间的气象水文特征,结果表明:2018年长江上游洪涝期间发生了三次强降水过程,降水落区在长江上游北部地区高度重叠,引发了严重的洪涝灾害。大尺度的环流形势分析表明,中高纬低槽、副热带高压、鄂霍茨克海阻塞高压、乌拉尔山阻塞高压均较历史同期异常偏强,副热带高压的南北摆幅较大,当副热带高压每次北跳后,都会与槽后冷空气在长江上游遭遇,形成一次强降水过程。大尺度环流的“鞍”型场配置有利于孟加拉湾及南海的水汽输送到长江上游地区,并在该地区与中纬度西风带水汽辐合形成强降水。历史对比结果表明:2018年长江上游的降水具有面上强度大、北部支流降水极端性强、降水时间集中的特点。2018年长江上游北部的沱江、涪江、嘉陵江等流域在水位和超警戒时间上均高于2012年。2018年长江上游总的降水量及洪峰流量虽未超过2012年,但在长江上游北部的沱江、涪江、嘉陵江引发的洪涝灾害可超过2012年。
Abstract:Based on NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and conventional meteorological and hydrological observation data, the meteorological and hydrological characteristics of the upper Yangtze River Basin during the severe flooding period from June to July 2018 are analyzed. The results show that three heavy precipitation processes occurred during the flooding period of the upper Yangtze River Basin in 2018, and the precipitation falling areas overlaped highly in the northern part of the upper Yangtze River Basin, causing serious disaster. Large scale circulation analysis shows that the low trough, subtropical high, Okhotsk blocking high and Ural blocking high in middle and high latitudes were stronger than those in the same period in records. The north south swing of subtropical high was larger. When the subtropical high jumped northward, it would encounter the cold air behind the trough in the upper Yangtze River Basin, forming a heavy precipitation process. The “saddle” configuration of large scale circulation facilitated the water vapor transport from the Bay of Bengal and the South China Sea to the upper Yangtze River Basin, and the convergence of water vapor in the region and the mid latitude westerly zone formed heavy precipitation. Compared with the historic records, we find that the precipitation in the upper Yangtze River Basin in 2018 was characterized by strong surface intensity, strong extreme precipitation in the northern tributaries and more concentrated raining period. Compared with the rainfall in 2012, the northern 〖JP2〗tributary of the upper〖JP〗 Yang tze River Basin had high water level and long time of exceeding the warning water level. The flood situation of Tuojiang River, Fujiang River and Jialing River was stronger than that of 2012. In 2018, the total precipitation and peak flow of the upper Yangtze River Basin did not exceed the situation in 2012, but the flood disasters caused by the Tuojiiang River, Fujiang River and Jialing River in the north of the upper Yangtze River Basin could exceed 2012.
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基金项目:国家重点研发计划(2018YFC1507200、2018YFC1507505和2018YFC150780)、湖北省自然科学基金项目(2018CFB706)、国家自然科学基金项目 (91637105和4147504)、国家科技支撑计划(2015BAC03B04)、湖北省气象局科技发展基金项目(2018Y02)及武汉暴雨研究所科研业务经费 (IHRKYYW201807和 IHRKYYW201909)共同资助
引用文本:
高琦,徐明,彭涛,万蓉,2020.2018年长江上游严重洪涝的气象水文特征[J].气象,46(2):223-233.
GAO Qi,XU Ming,PENG Tao,WAN Rong,2020.Meteorological and Hydrological Characteristics of Severe Floods over the Upper Yangtze River Basin in 2018[J].Meteor Mon,46(2):223-233.