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气象:2020,46(2):145-157
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CMIP5气候模式对亚洲升温幅度的模拟与预估
云翔,程嘉艺,李庆祥
(中国气象科学研究院,北京 100081;中山大学大气科学学院,广州 510275;中山大学一带一路研究院,珠海 519082)
Estimation of CMIP5 Multi-Mode on the Extent of Rise in Air Temperature in Asia
YUN Xiang,CHENG Jiayi,LI Qingxiang
(Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081; School of Atmospheric Sciences, Sun Yat Sen University, Guangzhou 510275; Institute of One Belt One Road, Sun Yat Sen University, Zhuhai 519082)
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投稿时间:2019-03-29    修订日期:2019-07-22
中文摘要: 基于新的全球表面温度数据集CMST(China merged surface temperature),全面评估了参加国际耦合模式比较计划第5阶段(CMIP5)的27个全球气候模式1900—2017年的气候模拟结果(1900—2005年为模式历史模拟,2006—2017年为不同典型浓度路径下的预估)。泰勒图及各种统计参数的对比表明,一些模式无论在历史模拟时段,还是在历史模拟和近期预估拼接时段,都稳定、较好地模拟出了观测序列的变化特征。利用筛选出模拟效果相对较优的9个模式,系统比较了其集合平均MT9(mean model top 9)与所有模式的集合平均MAM(mean all models)。分析结果表明:无论在哪种排放路径下,不管是时间变化,还是从空间分布方面,多数模式可能高估了亚洲区域增暖趋势,导致MAM过高估计了亚洲区域温度变化幅度与长期趋势,而优选的模式集合MT9明显比MAM更接近于观测值。进一步,采用了MT9的预估结果分析了2018—2099年的亚洲区域预估的地表升温幅度:到2099年,在RCP2.6浓度路径下,MT9预估亚洲地区的升温幅度较小,约为0.08℃;在RCP4.5浓度路径下,升温约为1.20℃;在RCP8.5浓度路径下,升温将达3.54℃,这些结果均略小于所有模式集合MAM的升温幅度,因而更加合理;同时还基于MT9预估分析了2018—2099年的温度距平的空间变化。
Abstract:Based on the new global surface temperature data set CMST (China merged surface temperature), we systematically evaluated the historical climate simulation results of the 27 global climate models which are participating in the International Coupling Model Comparison Plan Phase 5 (CMIP5) from 1900 to 2017. Historic model simulations for the period of 1900-2005 and projections for the 3 different representative concentration pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5) for 2006-2017. According to the comparison of various parameters in Taylor diagram, 9 models with better simulation results (MT9) are selected to present the models ensemble simulations. Compared with the ensemble average of mean all models (MAM), under any of the three RCPS, MT9 is significantly closer to the observed value (MAM overestimates the temperature change) in both spatial distribution and time variation . On this basis, this paper uses the prediction results of MT9 to analyze the amplitude of Asia surface air temperature rises during 2018-2099. The result showed that MT9 is expected to have smaller temperature warming than those of MAM under all the RCPs in the Asian region, which is about 0.08℃ for RCP 2.6, 1.20℃ for RCP4.5 and 3.54℃ for RCP8.5. These results are all smaller than those from the MAM ensembles, thus are more reasonable. In addition, this paper also analyzed the spatial distribution of the surface temperature anomalies in Asia based on the MT9.
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基金项目:国家重点研发计划(2018YFC150129,2017YFC1502301)共同资助
引用文本:
云翔,程嘉艺,李庆祥,2020.CMIP5气候模式对亚洲升温幅度的模拟与预估[J].气象,46(2):145-157.
YUN Xiang,CHENG Jiayi,LI Qingxiang,2020.Estimation of CMIP5 Multi-Mode on the Extent of Rise in Air Temperature in Asia[J].Meteor Mon,46(2):145-157.