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气象:2019,45(12):1710-1717
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高分辨率模式雷达回波预报能力分析
刘静,才奎志,谭政华
(辽宁省气象灾害监测预警中心,沈阳 110166; 本溪市气象局,本溪 110121)
Analysis of Radar Echo Forecasting Capability of Different High-Resolution Models
LIU Jing,CAI Kuizhi,TAN Zhenghua
(Liaoning Warning Center of Meteorological Disaster Monitoring, Shenyang 110166; Benxi Meteorological Office of Liaoning Province, Benxi 110121)
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投稿时间:2018-10-16    修订日期:2019-09-16
中文摘要: 利用2018年7—8月GRAPES_3 km、东北短临(WRFRUC)高分辨率模式综合雷达回波预报数据和辽宁省SWAN雷达组合反射率(MCR)实况,基于邻域法FSS评分指数,分析模式在台风北上和副热带高压边缘暴雨过程中的雷达回波预报能力。结果表明:两家模式在不同降水过程中对小阈值雷达回波有较好的预报技巧,随着回波量级增大,模式预报FSS逐渐减小,雷达回波>55 dBz时,FSS甚至为0。当邻域半径是3时,35 dBz 以下的回波预报中GRAPES模式在台风北上暴雨中的预报技巧低于副热带高压边缘,>35 dBz则相反。WRFRUC模式始终表现为台风北上暴雨中预报较好。当邻域半径>9时,WRFRUC模式在台风暴雨中的FSS评分高于GRAPES模式,GRAPES模式在副热带高压暴雨中的FSS评分始终高于WRFRUC模式。GRAPES和WRFRUC模式的最大FSS评分技巧均出现在邻域半径是11时,分别为0.239和0.195。GRAPES模式中FSS评分在12 h逐小时预报中前3个时次较强,WRFRUC模式则表现为中间时次强,两头弱。
Abstract:Using the forecasting radar echo data from GRAPES_3 km (Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System) and WRFRUC (Weather Research and Forecast Rapid Update Cycle) of July and August in 2018, the real radar echo data from SWAN (MCR), and FSS (fractions skill score), the radar echo forecast abilities of two high-resolution models for typhoon and subtropical anticyclone were analyzed. The results showed that the two models have better skill for weak radar echo forecast, with increase of radar echo, the forecasting skill score decreases. When radar echo reaches 55 dBz, FSS even is equal to zero. When spatial neighborhood radius is 3, the forecast is less skillfull in the typhoon rainstorm than subtropical anticyclone rainstorm with radar echo lower than 35 dBz. If radar echo is bigger than 35 dBz, it is in contrast. The forecasting of radar echo by WRFRUC model is always better for typhoon rainstorm than for subtropical anticyclone rainstorm. When spatial neighborhood radius increases to 9, the echo forecasting FSS of WRFRUC model is higher than that of GRAPES model in typhoon rain, but in subtropical anticyclone rainstorm, GRAPES model has the higher skill than WRFRUC model. The biggest FSSs of GRAPES and WRFRUC models appear at the spatial neighborhood radius of 11, and the values are 0.239 and 0.195, respectively. In the first three hours of the forecasting, FSS is bigger than in other hours for the GRAPES model. In the middle hours of the echo forecasting of WRFRUC model, FSS is higher than in other hours.
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基金项目:中国气象局预报员专项(CMAYBY2019-025和CMAYBY2018-016)共同资助
引用文本:
刘静,才奎志,谭政华,2019.高分辨率模式雷达回波预报能力分析[J].气象,45(12):1710-1717.
LIU Jing,CAI Kuizhi,TAN Zhenghua,2019.Analysis of Radar Echo Forecasting Capability of Different High-Resolution Models[J].Meteor Mon,45(12):1710-1717.