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投稿时间：2018-08-17 修订日期：2019-09-19
投稿时间：2018-08-17 修订日期：2019-09-19
中文摘要: 利用2013年以来建立的湖北省高速公路沿线的87个交通气象观测站每10分钟一次的气温及路面温度等实况资料，对各个高速路段的路面结冰频率随气温的变化规律进行了分析，发现均满足Logistic回归模型，但不同高速路段结冰对应的环境气温有差异。通过研究各个高速路段道路结冰的气温条件概率，计算得到湖北高速各个路段拐点气温，再结合路段降水情况，可以对湖北省高速公路结冰进行预警，从而为高速公路是否开展消冰措施、何时开展消冰措施提供建议。
Abstract:This paper analyzes the variation law of the icing frequency of each highway section with the temperature, using the observed 10 min air temperature and road surface tmeperature from 87 traffic and weather stations, established since 2013, along the highway in Hubei Province. It is found that the Logistic regression models are satisfied, but the ambient temperatures corresponding to icing in different highway sections are different. By studying the temperature condition probability of the road icing in each highway section, we obtain the temperature turning point of each section of Hubei highway. Combined with the precipitation (snow) of each highway section, it can be used for the early warning of highway icing in Hubei Province. Thus, suggestions can be made for whether to carry out ice removal measures of highways and when to carry out ice removal measures.
keywords: road surface temperature, Logistic regression, turning-goint temperature map, early warning of icing
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基金项目:湖北省气象局科技发展基金重点项目(2019Z07)、湖北省气象局科技发展基金面上项目（2018Y09）和湖北省气象局青年基金项目（2018Q11）共同资助
引用文本：
舒斯,熊守权,陈英英,何明琼,袁正腾,鲁静,崔杨,唐俊,2019.湖北省高速公路道路结冰预警模型[J].气象,45(11):1589-1599.
SHU Si,XIONG Shouquan,CHEN Yingying,HE Mingqiong,YUAN Zhengteng,LU Jing,CUI Yang,TANG Jun,2019.Warning Model of Road Surface Icing of Expressway in Hubei Province[J].Meteor Mon,45(11):1589-1599.
舒斯,熊守权,陈英英,何明琼,袁正腾,鲁静,崔杨,唐俊,2019.湖北省高速公路道路结冰预警模型[J].气象,45(11):1589-1599.
SHU Si,XIONG Shouquan,CHEN Yingying,HE Mingqiong,YUAN Zhengteng,LU Jing,CUI Yang,TANG Jun,2019.Warning Model of Road Surface Icing of Expressway in Hubei Province[J].Meteor Mon,45(11):1589-1599.
