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气象:2019,45(11):1539-1549
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河北省副热带高压外围降水的特征与预报
李江波,孔凡超,曾建刚,王玉虹,孙卓
(河北省气象台,石家庄 050021)
Characteristics and Predictive Focus of Torrential Rain Along the Outer Boundary of West Pacific Subtropical High in Hebei Province
LI Jiangbo,KONG Fanchao,ZENG Jiangang,WANG Yuhong,SUN Zhuo
(Hebei Meteorological Observatory, Shijiazhuang 050021)
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投稿时间:2018-10-25    修订日期:2019-09-18
中文摘要: 应用高空、地面等常规观测资料、NCEP/NCAR再分析资料、京津冀降水量资料,对2000—2013年河北省69次副热带高压(以下简称副高)外围降水个例进行了综合分析,结果表明:(1)69个副高外围降水个例雨量统计表明,暴雨和大暴雨发生频次自西北向东南明显增加,有三个区域较易出现暴雨和大暴雨:燕山南麓的唐山和秦皇岛、太行山东麓的邢台、河北平原东部的沧州和衡水。河北北部的坝上高原和保定西北部山区出现暴雨的概率较低。(2)按照副高型态,将69个副高外围暴雨过程分为三类,分别给出了每类的代表环流型和降水分布特征,并对这三种类型的环流背景场和物理量场进行了合成分析,给出了不同类型的环流特征和物理量特征。(3)统计了多个物理量及气象要素的平均值和极端值,统计结果可作为该类暴雨过程的量级、强度及极端性预报的重要参考指标。(4)在预报副高外围降水过程时,除了关注高空槽和副高的位置、强度、型态外,更要关注中低层及地面辐合系统。强降水多发生在584或586 dagpm等高线外围、低层700和850 hPa的低涡和切变线及地面倒槽或低压附近。
Abstract:Composite analyses of 69 torrential rain cases along the outer boundary of West Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) are carried out, based on the upper-level and surface observations, NCEP/NCAR reanalysis and the rainfall data of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei Province. The results show that: (1) The frequency of torrential rain events increases obviously from the northwest to the southeast of Hebei Province, accompanied by three high-frequency areas, which are located in Qinhuangdao and Tangshan at the south foot of Yanshan Mountain, Xingtai at the east foot of Taihang Mountain and Cangzhou and Hengshui in Hebei Plain, respectively. There are two low-frequency areas, located in the mountains of the northwest of Baoding and the area in the north of Zhangjiakou and the north of Chengde respectively. (2) The 69 torrential rain cases can be divided into three groups according to the flow patterns of WPSH, which are called blocking, quasi-east-west banding and northeast-southwest banding WPSH, respectively. Some typical flow patterns at 500 hPa and the frequency of rainfall over 50 mm and 100 mm in each group are plotted by composite analysis, and spatial distributions of the elements including the atmospheric precipitable water vapor, CAPE, vertical velocity at 700 hPa, pseudo-equivalent potential temperature and K index etc. are given out. (3) Based on the statistics, the mean and extreme values of some physical quantities of the 69 torrential rain cases are counted, which can be considered as the important clues to forecast the amount and location of heavy rainfall, and to estimate the extremity of torrential rain in weather forecasting operation. (4) More attentions should be paid to the location and intensity of the middle/low-level convergence in addition to the location, intensity and flow pattern of WPSH and the upper trough in the operational forecasting of the torrential rain along the outer boundary of WPSH. Severe rainfalls are prone to occurr in the areas along the 584 or 586 dagpm line at 500 hPa, the shear or the center of the vortex at 700/850 hPa, as well as the inverted trough or the center of the surface low pressure.
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基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(41575049)、中国气象局预报员专项(CMAYBY2013-007)和河北省强对流创新团队共同资助
引用文本:
李江波,孔凡超,曾建刚,王玉虹,孙卓,2019.河北省副热带高压外围降水的特征与预报[J].气象,45(11):1539-1549.
LI Jiangbo,KONG Fanchao,ZENG Jiangang,WANG Yuhong,SUN Zhuo,2019.Characteristics and Predictive Focus of Torrential Rain Along the Outer Boundary of West Pacific Subtropical High in Hebei Province[J].Meteor Mon,45(11):1539-1549.