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气象:2019,45(9):1322-1334
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2017年西北太平洋台风活动特征和预报难点分析
董林,高拴柱,许映龙,吕心艳,黄奕武
(国家气象中心,北京 100081; 中国科学院大学,北京 100049)
Analysis of Characteristics and Forecast Difficulties of TCs on Western North Pacific in 2017
DONG Lin,GAO Shuanzhu,XU Yinglong,Lü Xinyan,HUANG Yiwu
(National Meteorological Centre, Beijing 100081; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049)
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投稿时间:2018-05-30    修订日期:2019-07-22
中文摘要: 利用历史台风最佳路径、中央气象台台风路径强度实时预报,以及ECMWF数值预报和NCEP海温实况等资料,对2017年西北太平洋台风活动的主要特征和预报难点进行了分析,结果表明:2017年台风生成具有源地偏西、南海台风偏多和台风群发特征明显等特征;台风活动具有年度活跃程度低、台风极值强度偏弱和超强台风异常偏少等特征;台风登陆具有登陆台风个数多、登陆地点偏南、登陆强度偏弱等特征。对2017年度的预报误差进行分析,结果显示:24、48、72、96和120 h台风路径预报误差分别为74、137、233、318、428 km,各时效误差均较2016年有所增加;但与日本、美国相比,除120 h外,中国路径预报水平依然处于领先地位。 24、48、72、96和120 h台风强度误差分别为3.6、5.4、6.6、7.4和6.8 m·s-1,较2016年有所减小,24 h误差为历史最低值。强度预报水平居于日本、美国之间。另外,2017年最主要的预报难点是双台风或多台风之间复杂的相互作用和近海快速加强台风的强度预报。
Abstract:The characteristics of tropical cyclones (TCs) on Western North Pacific in 2017 were analyzed by using the best-track data, CMA operational forecast data, ECMWF products and NCEP SST_RTG data. Results can be summarized in the following three perspectives. The first is the tropical cyclogenesis. TCs have obvious characteristics of the cluster of tropical cyclogenesis. The generating locations are inclined to be westward. There are more TCs that generated on South China Sea than those in other areas. The second is TCs’ activities. It can be concluded that the annual activity level is low, TCs’ extreme intensity is rather weak, and the number of super typhoon is anomaly small. The third is TCs’ landing. More TCs made landfall this year, and the landing locations are inclined to be southward and the average intensity of landing TCs is weak in general. Estimations of track errors in this year show that there are small increases compared to those of 2016, with the value of 74, 137, 233, 318 and 428 km for 24, 48, 72, 96 and 120 h lead time, respectively. As for track forecast skill, CMA is ahead of JMA and JTWC except the 120 h lead time. The intensity errors are 3.6, 5.4, 6.6, 7.4 and 6.8 m·s-1 for 24, 48, 72, 96 and 120 h lead time, respectively, decreasing a little compared to the errors in 2016. It is noteworthy that the error of 24 h lead time is the lowest in records. The intensity forecast skill is between JMA and JTWC. The forecast difficulties are the complicated interaction between binary or among multiple TCs and the intensity forecast of RI TCs off-shore.
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基金项目:中国气象局预报员专项(CMAYBY2018-090)及国家自然科学基金面上项目(41575063和41675044)共同资助
引用文本:
董林,高拴柱,许映龙,吕心艳,黄奕武,2019.2017年西北太平洋台风活动特征和预报难点分析[J].气象,45(9):1322-1334.
DONG Lin,GAO Shuanzhu,XU Yinglong,LÜ Xinyan,HUANG Yiwu,2019.Analysis of Characteristics and Forecast Difficulties of TCs on Western North Pacific in 2017[J].Meteor Mon,45(9):1322-1334.