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气象:2018,44(11):1424-1433
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2016年湖北梅汛期一次极端强降雨的气象因子异常特征分析
张萍萍,孙军,车钦,董良鹏,钟敏,陈璇,张蒙蒙,张宁
(武汉中心气象台,武汉 430074; 国家气象中心,北京 100081; 湖北省气象局,武汉 430074)
Analysis on Abnormal Characteristics of Meteorological Factors During an Extremely Heavy Rainfall in 2016
ZHANG Pingping,SUN Jun,CHE Qin,DONG Liangpeng,ZHONG Min,CHEN Xuan,ZHANG Mengmeng,ZHANG Ning
(Wuhan Central Meteorological Observatory, Wuhan 430074; National Meteorological Centre, Beijing 100081; Hubei Meteorological Service, Wuhan 430074)
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投稿时间:2017-05-09    修订日期:2018-09-17
中文摘要: 利用NCEP/NCAR再分析逐日资料和其他常规观测资料,对2016年湖北省梅雨期一次罕见极端强降水过程气象因子的异常特征进行分析。结果表明:异常的高低纬度环流形势配合,为此次极端降水过程的发生提供了有利的环流背景。500 hPa副热带高压较气候平均值显著偏强,有利于副热带高压西侧水汽输送加强,使得低层南风距平较气候平均值异常偏强;850 hPa 低涡强烈发展配合200 hPa分流区的形成,导致垂直方向上动力抬升也表现出一定的异常性;此外对该过程中极端降水站点上空的气象因子分析发现,水汽因子(PW)、不稳定因子(K指数)和动力因子(850 hPa散度)绝对值均比气候平均值偏高了1.5个σ以上,并且超过历史相关统计值的上四分位值。最后给出了此次过极端强降水过程的天气概念模型及气象因子异常度的定量配置图。
Abstract:Based on NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and other conventional observation data, the abnormal characteristics of meteorological factors during an extremely heavy rainfall process in 2016 were analyzed. The results showed that the extremely heavy rainfall was a direct result of atmospheric circulation anomalies. The 500 hPa subtropical high was stronger than the climatic mean, which was conducive to the strengthening of water vapor transport, leading to stronger southerly normalized anomaly. The 850 hPa strong vortex development and 200 hPa shunting area formation contributed to the vertical uplift anomaly. By further analyzing the abnormal meteorological factors over the extremely rainfall sites, we found the absolute values of precipitable water, K index and 850 hPa divergence were higher than the climatic mean values for 1.5σ, and also higher than upper quartile of historical data. Finally, synoptic conceptual model and quantitative configuration diagram of abnormal meteorological factors were built based on above researches.
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基金项目:湖北省气象局科技基金项目(2017Z02)、中国气象局预报员专项(CMAYBY2018 046)和公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201306011)共同资助
引用文本:
张萍萍,孙军,车钦,董良鹏,钟敏,陈璇,张蒙蒙,张宁,2018.2016年湖北梅汛期一次极端强降雨的气象因子异常特征分析[J].气象,44(11):1424-1433.
ZHANG Pingping,SUN Jun,CHE Qin,DONG Liangpeng,ZHONG Min,CHEN Xuan,ZHANG Mengmeng,ZHANG Ning,2018.Analysis on Abnormal Characteristics of Meteorological Factors During an Extremely Heavy Rainfall in 2016[J].Meteor Mon,44(11):1424-1433.