###
气象:2018,44(3):341-350
←前一篇   |   后一篇→
本文二维码信息
码上扫一扫!
从物理模型到智能分析——降低天气预报不确定性的新探索
许小峰
(1 中国气象局武汉暴雨研究所,武汉 430205; 2 中国气象局,北京 100081;)
From Physical Model to Intelligent Analysis: A New Exploration to Reduce the Uncertainty of Weather Forecast
XU Xiaofeng
(1 Instituete of Heavy Rain, CMA, Wuhan 430205; 2 China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081)
摘要
图/表
参考文献
相似文献
本文已被:浏览 1991次   下载 2359
投稿时间:2018-02-11    修订日期:2018-02-24
中文摘要: 本文回顾了气象预报技术发展的进程,人们不断通过创造性的智慧发挥,从传统的经验判断到依靠现代数学物理方法,实现通过模式方程组求解大气演变过程,取得了成功。但面对复杂的天气气候系统,许多非线性不确定问题仍难以解决。随着人工智能(AI)技术的发展,有希望助上一臂之力。文中介绍了一些初步设想和进展,在观测识别、数据处理、短时临近预报、模式参数化、预报结果集成分析等环节都有初步成果,进一步的研发、拓展值得期待。
Abstract:In this paper, the development of weather forecast technology is reviewed. Owing to people’s creativity and wisdom, the atmospheric evolution processes can be solved by modern mathematical and physical methods of model equations instead of merely judgement based on experience in the past. However, the complicated weather and climate systems still pose challenges to nonlinear uncertainty problems. The artificial intelligence (AI) technologies may contribute to address the challenges. This paper introduces some initial assumptions and development of AI in observation and identification, data processing, short term and nowcast forecasting, model parameterization and integrated analysis of forecast products and so on, indicating the way forward of further research and development and their contribution.
文章编号:     中图分类号:P456    文献标志码:
基金项目:国家自然科学基金重点项目(91637211)资助
引用文本:
许小峰,2018.从物理模型到智能分析——降低天气预报不确定性的新探索[J].气象,44(3):341-350.
XU Xiaofeng,2018.From Physical Model to Intelligent Analysis: A New Exploration to Reduce the Uncertainty of Weather Forecast[J].Meteor Mon,44(3):341-350.