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气象:2018,44(2):304-312
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台风灾害综合等级评判模型改进及应用分析
王秀荣1,张立生2,李维邦3
(1 中国气象局公共气象服务中心,北京 100081 2 国家气象中心,北京 100081 3 香港理工大学,香港 999077)
Improvement and Application Analysis of the Comprehensive Grade Evaluation Model of Typhoon Disaster
WANG Xiurong1,ZHANG Lisheng2,LI Weibang3
(1 Public Meteorological Service Centre, CMA, Beijing 100081 2 National Meteorological Centre, Beijing 100081 3 The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hongkong 999077)
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投稿时间:2017-05-22    修订日期:2017-12-29
中文摘要: 本文首先对2010年王秀荣等建立的台风灾害综合等级评判模型进行了改进,主要基于以下三个方面:一是对倒损房屋数指标的转换函数进行重新定义,二是对直接经济损失指标的去通货膨胀化;三是对原模型综合关联度指数分析中“死亡人数、直接经济损失、倒损房屋数、农作物受淹面积”4个指标的权重系数优化;然后,运用改进模型对2000—2015年登陆我国的历史台风灾害进行了综合等级评定与大小排序;同时,将评定结果与原模型的评定结果进行了比对。通过应用与检验分析,证明了改进后模型明显降低了通货膨胀对直接经济损失指数的影响,凸显了以人为本的防灾理念,较原模型具有更好的等级识别度,评定灾情等级结果更符合实际灾情,具备较好的评判功能,可以试用于气象服务等相关业务中快速对台风灾情进行综合等级或历史排序等评判。
Abstract:This paper firstly discusses about the improvement of typhoon disaster comprehensive evaluating model established by Wang Xiurong et al. in 2010. First, the function optimization of damaged buildings index is redefined; second, the influence of inflation on the direct economic loss index is wiped off; third, the weight coefficient of four indicators is optimized, including the death toll of the original model, the direct economic loss, the number of damaged houses, and the flooded crops area. In the second part of this paper, the improved model is used to evaluate the historical typhoon disasters in China from 2000 to 2015 comprehensively and sort all the historical typhoon disasters from high to low based on the results. At the same time, the results are compared with the original model to evaluate the effectiveness of the improved model. Finally, the application and test analysis prove that the improved evaluation model highlights the people oriented concept of disaster prevention, reducing the impact of inflation on the direct economic loss index. Compared with the original model, it has a better level of recognition, and its assessment of disaster grade results is more in line with the actual disaster, having a good evaluation function. Thus, it could be applied to relevant operations of meteorological services to quickly evaluate the typhoon disaster comprehensive grades or historical sorting.
文章编号:     中图分类号:P456    文献标志码:
基金项目:中国气象局气象关键技术集成与应用(重点)项目(CMAGJ2015Z03)资助
引用文本:
王秀荣,张立生,李维邦,2018.台风灾害综合等级评判模型改进及应用分析[J].气象,44(2):304-312.
WANG Xiurong,ZHANG Lisheng,LI Weibang,2018.Improvement and Application Analysis of the Comprehensive Grade Evaluation Model of Typhoon Disaster[J].Meteor Mon,44(2):304-312.