Abstract:This paper analyzes the factors which led to landslide in Guzhang of Hunan Province on 17 July 2016. Based on the GIS space analysis tools, all geological factors contributing to the Guzhang landslide are analyzed by using the geological disaster investigation data with scale of 150000, distribution of road and railway as well as the net of small rivers, river banks and aspect of landslides. Using the module of Bayesian inference, and Gibbs Sampling (BUGS), the parameters of I D curves are estimated, and the effective rainfall which led to the landslides of Guzhang area is studied. Combining the previous disaster investigation of Guzhang landslides with the analysis result, we get a detailed cause of Guzhang landslides, which is helpful in warning landslides there in future. The analysis about the landslide factor of Guzhang landslide shows us that the extremely heavy rains are the main cause for the landslides, the badly cutting slope condition caused by traffic construction, sensitive slope interval and the high risk of the aspect to the landslide are also the key factors for the 17 July landslide at Morong of Guzhang. The research methods and findings are conductive to the future warning of geological disasters.