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投稿时间：2017-01-25 修订日期：2017-08-02
投稿时间：2017-01-25 修订日期：2017-08-02
中文摘要: 讨论了前期全球海温异常对山东夏季降水不同分布型的影响，找到了对汛期降水预测有指示意义的异常信号，并将这些异常信号与2016年的降水分布特征进行了验证。前期恩索(ENSO)处于发展状态时，易造成全省夏季降水一致的分布形势；前期ENSO处于衰减状态时，山东夏季降水易出现东西反向的分布形势。太平洋十年际振荡和热带印度洋全区一致海温模态位相与鲁东南和半岛的夏季降水存在高相关，而副热带南印度洋偶极子和热带印度洋偶极子位相对山东夏季降水的高影响区位于鲁西北。这些异常信号对山东夏季降水预测具有一定的指示意义。
中文关键词: 海温异常，山东夏季降水，气候预测
Abstract:Influence of the early SST anomaly on the summer precipitation distribution in Shandong was discussed and possible precursor for prediction was concluded, and verified by actual condition of 2016. It is easy to cause the first EOF mode when ENSO is in the stage of development before summer, and the second mode when ENSO is in the state of decay. The summer precipitation is highly correlated with the Pacific decadal oscillation and Indian Ocean basin wide warming phase in the southeast and the peninsula of Shandong Province. Meanwhile, high impact area of Southern Indian Ocean dipole and tropical Indian Ocean dipole phase is located in the northwest of Shandong Province. These SST anomalies have certain indicative significance to the summer precipitation prediction in Shandong.
文章编号： 中图分类号：P461 文献标志码：
基金项目:公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201306033)及山东省气象局课题(2015sdqxm06和2016sdqxz02)共同资助
| Author Name | Affiliation |
| MENG Xiangxin | Shandong Climate Centre, Jinan 250031 |
| WANG Na | Shandong Climate Centre, Jinan 250031 |
| SHANG Lin | Shandong Climate Centre, Jinan 250031 |
引用文本：
孟祥新,王娜,商林,2017.海温异常对山东夏季降水的影响分析[J].气象,43(10):1259-1266.
MENG Xiangxin,WANG Na,SHANG Lin,2017.Influence of the Early SST Anomaly on the Summer Precipitation in Shandong Province[J].Meteor Mon,43(10):1259-1266.
孟祥新,王娜,商林,2017.海温异常对山东夏季降水的影响分析[J].气象,43(10):1259-1266.
MENG Xiangxin,WANG Na,SHANG Lin,2017.Influence of the Early SST Anomaly on the Summer Precipitation in Shandong Province[J].Meteor Mon,43(10):1259-1266.