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气象:2017,43(4):477-485
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2016年全球重大天气气候事件及其成因
(1.国家气候中心,北京 100081 中国气象局气候研究开放实验室,北京 100081;2.国家气候中心,北京 100081)
Global Major Weather and Climate Events in 2016 and the Possible Causes
(1.National Climate Centre, Beijing 100081 Laboratory for Climate Studies, CMA, Beijing 100081;2.National Climate Centre, Beijing 100081)
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投稿时间:2017-03-27    修订日期:2017-03-31
中文摘要: 2016年全球主要温室气体浓度持续上升,地表温度相比工业化时代之前水平偏高1.1℃,成为有气象记录以来的最热年。受全球变暖影响,北极海冰全年处于较低水平,格陵兰冰盖和南极海冰的消融程度明显增强;海洋温度升高致使全球海平面上升和海洋环境变化。在超强厄尔尼诺事件背景下,受大气环流异常影响,全球降水空间分布不均,年初多地旱情持续发展,造成粮食和水资源危机;年内暴雨洪涝、高温热浪、寒流暴雪和热带气旋等各类极端天气气候事件频繁发生,在世界各地造成了严重人口伤亡和社会经济损失。本文总结了2016年全球重大天气气候事件及其影响,并重点分析了中国长江流域降水异常偏多及美国高温热浪天气两个典型事件的形成原因。分析表明,夏季西太平洋副热带高压偏西偏强,致使西南低空急流作为水汽通道将低纬暖湿气流向长江流域输送,配合同期亚洲东北部的高空槽引导高纬冷空气南下,冷暖气团的共同作用导致了中国长江流域强降水事件频发、汛情严重;北美副热带高压在美国境内一段时期内的稳定停滞以及低纬水汽输送条件偏差,是7月美国中东部地区高温热浪天气事件发生的主要原因。
Abstract:The year 2016 is the hottest year on the world record. The surface temperature is 1.1℃ above those of the pre industrial with the major greenhouse gas concentrations continuing to rise. Under the impact of global warming, Arctic sea ice remained at very low levels and there was significant melting of continental ice on Greenland and Antarctic. Warming also affected the oceans, resulting in global sea level rising and the changes of marine environment. Droughts continued into early 2016, causing food and water crisis in numerous parts of the world. Various kinds of extreme climate events occurred frequently and caused serious social and economic losses worldwide. This paper summarizes the major events and the impact in 2016, and analyses the main causes of typical events including the flood disasters in the Yangtze River Basin in China and the heat wave during summer in the United States. Analysis shows that the westward extension and enhancement of West Pacific subtropical high led to the transport of warm and moist air flows from low latitude to the Yangtze River Basin, while the upper trough in Northeastern Asia brought the cold air southward. The interaction of the warm and cold air masses led to the extremely heavy rainfalls and severe floods in China. The stagnation and stability of North America subtropical high and the weakening condition of water vapor transport are the main cause for the summer heat wave in the United States.
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基金项目:公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201506002)和中国气象局气候研究开放实验室青年基金项目(2017年度)共同资助
引用文本:
孙劭,李多,刘绿柳,王遵娅,尹宜舟,2017.2016年全球重大天气气候事件及其成因[J].气象,43(4):477-485.
SUN Shao,LI Duo,LIU Lüliu,WANG Zunya,YIN Yizhou,2017.Global Major Weather and Climate Events in 2016 and the Possible Causes[J].Meteor Mon,43(4):477-485.