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气象:2017,43(3):305-314
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1961—2014年广东小时强降水的变化特征
(1.广东省气候中心, 广州 510640 中国气象局广东省区域数值天气预报重点实验室, 广州 510640;2.广东省气候中心, 广州 510640)
Variation Characteristics of Hourly Heavy Precipitation in Guangdong During 1961-2014
(1.Guangdong Climate Center, Guangzhou 510640 Guangdong Key Laboratory of Regional Numerical Weather Prediction, CMA, Guangzhou 510640;2.Guangdong Climate Center, Guangzhou 510640)
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投稿时间:2016-04-13    修订日期:2016-08-16
中文摘要: 利用1961—2014年广东32个气象观测站逐小时降水资料,采用线性趋势分析、Mann Kendall检验、功率谱分析、计算趋势系数等统计诊断方法,分析了广东小时强降水在年以及前、后汛期的气候特征及变化。结果表明,广东年、前、后汛期多年平均小时强降水的次数、强度、降水量和贡献率的空间分布均呈沿海向内陆递减。近54年来,广东平均小时强降水的次数、强度、降水量和贡献率在年以及前、后汛期的时间尺度上均为显著上升的趋势,与同期广东年暴雨次数和年降水变化不明显有明显差异。广东大部分测站小时强降水量均呈增加的趋势,其中珠三角增加最为显著。近54年来广东年和前汛期小时强降水次数存在3.7年和22年、后汛期存在3年左右的显著周期震荡。广东年和后汛期小时强降水次数在1993—1994年发生增加的突变,前汛期小时强降水次数没有突变发生。
Abstract:Based on the hourly precipitation data of 32 meteorological observational stations in Guangdong during 1961-2014, the climatic characteristics and variation of hourly heavy precipitation in annual, the pre and latter flood season in Guangdong were studied by using statistical diagnostic methods, such as linear regression analysis, Mann Kendall test, power spectrum analysis and the computation of trend coefficients. The results showed that the mean hourly heavy precipitation hours, intensity, precipitation and contribution in annual, the pre and latter flood season in Guangdong has a decreasing trend from coastal regions to inland. The change of annual torrential rain days and precipitation is not obvious in the same time. There are obvious differences among the annual hourly heavy precipitation hours and torrential rain days or precipitation. The hourly heavy precipitation hours at most stations in Guangdong has increased obviously, especially in Pearl River Delta. The changes of hourly heavy precipitation hours in annual or the pre flood season in Guangdong have 3.7 and 22 year periods, and 3 year period in the latter flood season. The hourly heavy precipitation hours in annual and the latter flood season in Guangdong has an abrupt change in 1993-1994, but which is in the pre flood has not an abrupt change.
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基金项目:广东省气象局科技项目(2014B04)、广东省水利科技创新项目(2016 31)、广东省气候中心项目(QH201508)和广东省农业厅项目(201501)共同资助
引用文本:
伍红雨,李春梅,刘蔚琴,2017.1961—2014年广东小时强降水的变化特征[J].气象,43(3):305-314.
WU Hongyu,LI Chunmei,LIU Weiqin,2017.Variation Characteristics of Hourly Heavy Precipitation in Guangdong During 1961-2014[J].Meteor Mon,43(3):305-314.