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气象:2016,42(12):1476-1482
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国家级格点化定量降水预报系统
(国家气象中心,北京 100081)
State Level Gridded Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting System
(National Meteorological Centre, Beijing 100081)
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投稿时间:2016-03-08    修订日期:2016-08-12
中文摘要: 利用主客观融合降水反演、降水统计降尺度、降水时间拆分等技术构建了国家级格点化定量降水预报系统。该系统结构合理,模块功能明确,于2014年6月在国家气象中心投入业务使用,生成0~168 h时效,10 km分辨率,逐3 h的格点化定量降水预报产品。通过对2015年第13号热带气旋苏迪罗的格点化降水预报个例检验,结果显示,相比欧洲中期数值预报中心的确定性模式预报和预报员主观预报,该产品能更好地体现台风降水的时空精细化分布特点,对福建东北部和浙江东南部的特大暴雨中心位置表现更准确细致。通过对2015年4—9月的格点化产品整体效果检验,结果显示,相比欧洲中期数值预报中心的确定性模式预报和由反距离客观分析后的预报员主观预报,该产品既能保持和预报员主观预报相同的准确率,同时也能较明显地提高降水预报的时空精细化程度。
Abstract:A state level gridded quantitative precipitation forecasting system has been built by using the fusion of subjective and objective precipitation inversion, precipitation statistical downscaling, time split method and other techniques. The technical structure of this system is reasonable, and its module features a clear division. It has been put into meteorological operation in the National Meteorological Center, China Meteorological Administration since June 2014, being able to generate gridded quantitative precipitation forecast products with forecast time length of 0-168 h, 10 km resolution and 3 h interval. The gridded precipitation forecast of the 13th tropical cyclone “Soudelor” in 2015 is tested and the results show that, compared to the deterministic model forecasts of the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) and the subjective forecasts, this forecast can better reflect the spatio temporal distribution of typhoon precipitation, and more accurately express the severe rainstorm center in northeast of Fujian and southeast of Zhejiang. The overall effect of the gridded forecasts from April to September 2015 is verified. The results indicate that, compared to the deterministic model forecasts of the ECMWF and the forecasters’ subjective forecasts after inverse distance objective analysis, the forecast products can maintain the same predictive accuracy as subjective forecasts, and meanwhile can obviously improve the degree of spatio temporal precision of precipitation forecasts.
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基金项目:公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201306002)资助
引用文本:
曹勇,刘凑华,宗志平,谌芸,代刊,陈涛,杨寅,2016.国家级格点化定量降水预报系统[J].气象,42(12):1476-1482.
CAO Yong,LIU Couhua,ZONG Zhiping,CHEN Yun,DAI Kan,CHEN Tao,YANG Yin,2016.State Level Gridded Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting System[J].Meteor Mon,42(12):1476-1482.