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投稿时间：2015-05-18 修订日期：2016-03-21
投稿时间：2015-05-18 修订日期：2016-03-21
中文摘要: 本文利用1981—2014年江西91个气象观测站的地面气象观测资料和同期的分县晚稻产量资料，结合江西地区气候特点及晚稻生理特性，构建适用于江西地区晚稻降水、温度、日照及综合适宜度模型，并根据适宜度与产量的相关关系，确定气候适宜指数，建立基于气候适宜指数的江西晚稻产量动态预报模型，并对模型进行了回代检验及预报检验，从而实现对江西地区晚稻气候适宜度诊断及晚稻产量动态预报的目的。结果表明：模型的回代检验、产量丰歉趋势、产量动态预报检验的准确率均较高，能够满足业务的需要。
中文关键词: 晚稻产量， 气候适宜度， 气候适宜指数， 产量动态预报
Abstract:By using the meteorological observation data from 91 weather stations in Jiangxi province during 1981-2014 and the late rice yield data of the corresponding time period, and combining physiological characteristics of late rice and climatic features of Jiangxi, the suitability models for temperature, precipitation and sunshine in the Jiangxi area are constructed. Moreover, according to the correlation between rice yield and suitability, the climate suitability index is determined. Then based on the index, the dynamic prediction model of the late rice in Jiangxi is constructed and tested so as to diagnose the climate suitability of the late rice in Jiangxi and to do dynamic prediction of the late rice yield. The results indicate that the method has high prediction accuracy of the bumper or poor harvest trend and the actual yield in the model test and forecasting test, and it could satisfy the needs of operational services.
keywords: late rice yield, climate suitability indicator, climate suitability index, dynamic yield prediction
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基金项目:中国气象局业务建设项目“2015年作物产量气象预报专项”和江西省气象局2014年重点科研项目（ORYZA2000）共同资助
| 作者 | 单位 |
| 易灵伟 | 华中农业大学植物科学技术学院气象学研究室，武汉 430070 |
| 杨爱萍 | 江西省气象局农气中心，南昌 330000 |
| 余焰文 | 南京信息工程大学江苏省农业气象重点实验室，南京 210044 |
| 蔡哲 | 江西省气象局农气中心，南昌 330000 |
引用文本：
易灵伟,杨爱萍,余焰文,蔡哲,2016.基于气候适宜指数的江西晚稻产量动态预报模型构建及应用[J].气象,42(7):885-891.
YI Lingwei,YANG Aiping,YU Yanwen,CAI Zhe,2016.Dynamic Prediction and Its Application for Late Rice Yield Based on Climate Suitability Index in Jiangxi[J].Meteor Mon,42(7):885-891.
易灵伟,杨爱萍,余焰文,蔡哲,2016.基于气候适宜指数的江西晚稻产量动态预报模型构建及应用[J].气象,42(7):885-891.
YI Lingwei,YANG Aiping,YU Yanwen,CAI Zhe,2016.Dynamic Prediction and Its Application for Late Rice Yield Based on Climate Suitability Index in Jiangxi[J].Meteor Mon,42(7):885-891.