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气象:2016,42(4):489-495
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2015年全球重大天气气候事件及其成因
(1.国家气候中心,北京 100081 中国气象局气候研究开放实验室,北京 100081;2.国家气候中心,北京 100081)
Global Major Weather and Climate Events in 2015 and the Possible Cause
(1.National Climate Centre, Beijing 100081 Laboratory for Climate Studies, CMA, Beijing 100081;2.National Climate Centre, Beijing 100081)
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投稿时间:2016-03-24    修订日期:2016-03-31
中文摘要: 2015年全球平均表面温度继续偏高,比1961—1990年平均值偏高0.76℃,成为有气象记录以来最暖的一年。年内,赤道中东太平洋海温异常偏暖,全球海洋平均热容量突破历史纪录。北极海冰年内最大值又创新低,南极海冰继续偏多。受下垫面因子的影响,大气环流持续性异常导致全球多地出现极端天气气候事件,如春季南亚地区暴雨成灾,夏季欧洲受到高温侵袭等。分析表明赤道中东太平洋以及赤道印度洋的海温异常偏高引起西太平洋副热带高压异常偏西、偏强,以及印度半岛局地对流活跃是导致南亚地区春季暴雨频繁的主要原因;另外,北极涛动负位相的维持导致中纬度西风减速及经向型环流的建立,是造成欧洲7月初高温热浪的直接原因。
Abstract:The global average surface temperature in 2015 was about 0.76℃ higher than the mean value of 1961-1990, and it became the warmest year on record since 1850. In this year, the sea surface temperature (SST) in the Central Eastern Pacific was anomalously higher than normal, and the global ocean heat content broke the historical record. The maximum of Arctic sea ice extent during this year was at the lowest level on record while the Antarctic sea ice extent was still higher than normal. Affected by the external forcing factors and the persistent anomalous atmospheric circulation, notable extreme weather and climate events occurred worldwide, such as the frequent spring torrential rains in Southern Asia and the summer hot wave in Europe. Analysis shows that the anomalously warm SST in Central Eastern Pacific and Indian Ocean brought in the westward extension and enhancement of West Pacific subtropical high and the local active convection in Indian Peninsula, leading to more rainfalls in spring in Southern Asia. Moreover, the July hot wave in Europe resulted from the weakening of westerly and the establishment of meridional circulation which was related to the continual negative phase of Arctic Oscillation.
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基金项目:国家重大科学研究计划(2012CB955203)和中国气象局气候研究开放实验室青年基金(2015年度)资助项目共同资助
引用文本:
邵勰,廖要明,柳艳菊,叶殿秀,司东,王艳姣,聂羽,2016.2015年全球重大天气气候事件及其成因[J].气象,42(4):489-495.
SHAO Xie,LIAO Yaoming,LIU Yanju,YE Dianxiu,SI Dong,WANG Yanjiao,NIE Yu,2016.Global Major Weather and Climate Events in 2015 and the Possible Cause[J].Meteor Mon,42(4):489-495.