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投稿时间：2015-08-31 修订日期：2015-12-03
投稿时间：2015-08-31 修订日期：2015-12-03
中文摘要: 目前，数值模式的准确性不断提高，天气预报和气候预测越来越依靠数值模式。数值模式不仅仅是求解描述大气运动和热力过程的方程组，其中也大量使用了统计方法，统计方法是数值模式的重要组成部分。本文对统计方法在数值模式中应用的最新进展进行了综述。首先，分析了统计方法在数值模式的资料同化、集合预报、次网格尺度物理过程参数化方案、数值产品统计释用、延伸期预报、模式检验等方面的应用。然后阐述了贝叶斯统计在数值模式中应用的新进展。最后，对统计方法在数值模式中应用的未来发展趋势进行了展望。
Abstract:The accuracy of numerical models has been improved continuously and weather forecast and climate prediction rely on numerical models more and more. Numerical models are the equations which describe the motion and thermodynamic processes of the atmosphere. Statistical methods are also widely used to numerical models, becoming important components of numerical models. This paper reviews some new advances in the application of statistical method to numerical models. Firstly, application of statistical methods to data assimilation, ensemble forecast, parameterization of physical processes, statistical interpretation, extended range weather forecasts and model verification for numerical model are analyzed. Then, the latest application of Bayes statistics to numerical models is elaborated. Finally, several important research trends for future application of statistical methods to numerical models are put forward.
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基金项目:国家重点基础研究发展计划（973计划）(2012CB957804)、公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201406020)、国家自然科学基金项目(41305131和41505079)及重庆市博士后项目(渝xm201103028)共同资助
引用文本：
朱玉祥,黄嘉佑,丁一汇,2016.统计方法在数值模式中应用的若干新进展[J].气象,42(4):456-465.
ZHU Yuxiang,HUANG Jiayou,DING Yihui,2016.Some New Advances in Application of Statistical Methods to Numerical Models[J].Meteor Mon,42(4):456-465.
朱玉祥,黄嘉佑,丁一汇,2016.统计方法在数值模式中应用的若干新进展[J].气象,42(4):456-465.
ZHU Yuxiang,HUANG Jiayou,DING Yihui,2016.Some New Advances in Application of Statistical Methods to Numerical Models[J].Meteor Mon,42(4):456-465.