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气象:2016,42(4):389-397
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不同类型强对流预报产品的目标对象检验与分析评价
(上海中心气象台,上海 200030)
Object Based Verification and Evaluation for Different Types of Severe Convection Forecasting Products
(Shanghai Central Meteorological Observatory, Shanghai 200030)
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投稿时间:2015-06-18    修订日期:2015-09-14
中文摘要: 针对强对流天气时空尺度小的特点、对其预报需要关注多种要素的需求,为了挖掘预报的潜在价值,设计了目标对象检验方法:首先,分别在预报和实况中识别出强度、面积符合一定匹配条件的目标对象单体(如对流单体、强天气落区等);然后,根据识别目标对象的面积、空间距离、形态进行预报和实况间的对象匹配;接着,对预报目标对象进行等级TS评分、等级面积大小、重心偏移、交叉相关、形状对比(轴向和椭圆率)等五项指标的检验;最后,依据用户评价偏好,采用加权平均方法给出总体检验评分和面积、位置、形状方面的评价信息。通过对中国气象局短临预报业务系统SWAN等业务系统的三类短临预报业务产品(REF、QPF、对流概率预报)的检验表明:该检验方法能够量化评价预报对象在面积、位置或强度等要素上的吻合程度及对应的偏差,给出导致常规检验评分(如TS评分)较低的原因,并综合这些要素给出针对用户的评价,为预报人员提供了更多有效的检验评估信息,实现对多种类型强对流预报产品的综合检验和评价。
Abstract:According to the characteristics of severe convective weather and the requirements to focus on various factors, object based verification method is developed to find the potential value of forecasts. First of all, convection objects, such as convective cells and severe convective weather area, are identified in both forecasts and observations based on intensity and area which meet certain requirements. Then objects in the two datasets are matched according to the area, distance and morphology. After that, objects in forecasts are verified in five aspects, grade TS score, grade size, distance of center of gravity, cross correlation and morphology (axial and ellipticity). Finally, based on the evaluation preference of users, verification scores by weighted average and evaluation for area, position and shape are provided. Three types of severe convection forecasting products, such as QPF, REF, or convection probability product of the Chinese Meteorological Administration (CMA) SWAN (Severe Weather Analysis and Nowcasting) system, are verified by this object based method. This method can provide quantitative verification in coincidence and deviation for area, position or intensity. It also can explain why the regular verification scores (such as TS score) are low. Therefore, this method can privide more effective verification and evaluation information for forecasters, combined with above elements.
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基金项目:公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201006002)和上海市科学委员会科研计划项目(14231202400)共同资助
引用文本:
茅懋,戴建华,李佰平,张欣,2016.不同类型强对流预报产品的目标对象检验与分析评价[J].气象,42(4):389-397.
MAO Mao,DAI Jianhua,LI Baiping,ZHANG Xin,2016.Object Based Verification and Evaluation for Different Types of Severe Convection Forecasting Products[J].Meteor Mon,42(4):389-397.