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气象:2015,41(11):1356-1366
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南方三类云系云结构预报和增雨作业条件分析
(1.中国气象科学研究院,中国气象局人工影响天气中心,北京 100081;2.湖南省人工影响天气办公室,长沙 410118)
Analysis on Cloud Structure Forecast and Seeding Conditions of 3 Types of Cloud System in South China
(1.Weather Modification Center of CMA, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081;2.Hunan Weather Modification Office, Changsha 410118)
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投稿时间:2014-07-30    修订日期:2015-05-15
中文摘要: 2013年夏季,我国南方出现了大范围高温干旱天气。8月1—22日,中国气象局人工影响天气中心利用人影数值模式为南方高温旱区开展云结构预报和人工增雨作业条件分析服务工作。文章简要回顾了2013年8月的旱情和天气过程,重点对2013年8月南方三类云系的云结构预报结果和增雨作业条件进行了分析。8月1—22日,我国南方高温旱区降水过程可分为3种类型。1—4日为台风外围云系降水;5—13日为副热带高压控制下局地对流性降水;14—22日为台风登陆后低压环流云系降水。人影模式对台风外围云系和低压环流云系降水的范围和强度基本预报正确,对云系影响时段和局地对流降水位置的预报略有偏差。利用卫星反演光学厚度、实测雨量和雷达回波检验模式预报结果,大范围云系与实况卫星反演结果比较吻合,而且能够预报出局地对流云团,以及与实况接近的云层性质和垂直结构。综合分析云带、过冷水、云垂直结构、降水等产品可知,台风外围云系和低压环流云系既有暖云降水、也有冷暖混合云降水,冷暖混合云中有最大值为0.3 g·kg-1过冷水,位于-10~0℃,冰晶数浓度较小,可能有较好的冷云催化增雨潜力;副热带高压内部局地对流云团基本为冷暖混合云降水,在初始发展阶段会出现最大值为1 g·kg-1过冷水,冰晶数浓度很少,上升运动大值区位于过冷水层下方,可能有很好的冷云催化增雨潜力。针对南方夏季积层混合云以及对流云的微物理结构和增雨条件的研究以及预报准确率还需加强和提高。
Abstract:Wide range of high temperature and drought occurred in South China in the summer of 2013. From 1 to 22 August, Weather Modification Center of CMA carried out the work of cloud structure forecast and seeding conditions analysis using weather modification models. This paper briefly reviews drought and weather and analyzes cloud structure forecast and seeding conditions. Three types of cloud system precipitation happened during 1-22 August in the drought region. Type I is precipitation of typhoon periphery cloud system from 1 to 4 August, Type II is precipitation of local convective cloud controlled by subtropical high from 5 to 13 August, and Type III is low pressure cloud system from 14 to 22 August after typhoon landing. The precipitation forecasts of weather modification model are basically correct with observations of Types I and III, but a bit different from Type II. The forecast results are validated by the observations of satellite, radar and precipitation. The distribution of large cloud system coincides with the retrieval result of satellite. The model can forecast the development of local convective cloud. The cloud property and vertical structure are basically consistent with radar observations. The seeding conditions are analyzed through the products of cloud band, supercooled water, vertical structure of cloud, precipitation etc. There is not only warm cloud but also mixed phase cloud of precipitation of Types I and III. The mixed phase cloud has supercooled water with the maximum of 0.3 g·kg-1 and less ice crystals between 0 and -10℃, which is suitable for cold cloud seeding. In the beginning stage there is the supercooled water with maximum value 1 g·kg-1, which is good for cold cloud seeding. A lot of work needs to do about the microphysical and seeding conditions of model forecasts for mixed phase cloud and precipitation in South China.
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基金项目:中国气象科学研究院基本科研业务项目(2011Z005和2014R004)及公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY20120625)共同资助
引用文本:
孙晶,史月琴,蔡淼,周毓荃,唐林,2015.南方三类云系云结构预报和增雨作业条件分析[J].气象,41(11):1356-1366.
SUN Jing,SHI Yueqin,CAI Miao,ZHOU Yuquan,TANG Lin,2015.Analysis on Cloud Structure Forecast and Seeding Conditions of 3 Types of Cloud System in South China[J].Meteor Mon,41(11):1356-1366.