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气象:2015,41(10):1203-1214
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一次副热带高压边缘上大暴雨的中尺度特征分析
(江西省气象台,南昌 330046)
Mesoscale Characteristics Analysis of Rainstorm on the Edge of Subtropical High
(Jiangxi Meteorological Observatory, Nanchang 330046)
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投稿时间:2014-08-19    修订日期:2015-08-15
中文摘要: 文章利用常规和自动气象站观测资料、卫星、闪电定位、雷达资料及NCEP分析资料,对2014年5月24—25日赣西地区致灾大暴雨的中尺度对流条件和对流系统的演变特征进行了分析。结果表明:(1)高空槽东移、副热带高压边缘暖湿气流加强,以及冷空气影响,构成了此次大暴雨的天气背景条件。(2)地面中尺度辐合线是导致MβCS发展及加强的重要因子;多个结构密实、边界光滑的MβCS在赣西地区长时间维持,导致相应地区出现持续强降水天气;此次大暴雨过程中TBB≤-62℃的冷云云团位置和强度对地面降水有很好的指示作用,尤以TBB≤-72℃的中心区与强降水中心区吻合最好。(3)此次暴雨过程5 min雨量分布与地闪数的分布较重合,地闪跃增时刻在地面降水增大前出现,提前时间约10 min左右。(4)雷达径向速度图上的中尺度涡旋是导致此次暴雨发生的重要因素之一;在赣西地区存在显著的径向风辐合特征,且低空强西南风急流上叠加深厚径向风辐合区,有利于降水的加强和维持;另外在动力辐合和山地地形共同作用下,强劲的偏南风急流携带充沛水汽在赣西地区汇合,导致该地区出现连续性强降水。(5)最大雷达回波强度的变化对地面5 min雨强的变化有辅助参考,但预示性不明显;雷达风廓线产品对地面强降水的发生有较好的预报辅助作用,在此次大暴雨过程中该产品对赣西地区强降水预报辅助作用的“提前量”达2 h。
Abstract:Based on conventional and automatic weather station observation data, satellite, lightning location, radar data and NCEP reanalysis data, this paper analyzed the mesoscale convection condition and evolution characteristics of convective system in the disastrous rainstorm that happened in the west of Jiangxi from 24 to 25 May 2014. The conclusions are as follows. (1) Synoptic background of this rainstorm consists of eastward the movement of upper trough, strengthening of warm wet air in the edge of subtropical high, and the effect of cold air. (2) Surface mesoscale convergence line contributes to development and strengthening of MβCS. The long time lasting of many dense MβCSs with smooth boundary in western Jiangxi leads to continuous heavy rainfall in the corresponding region. The cold cloud’s position and intensity of TBB≤-62℃ are good indicators for surface precipitation, especially the center of TBB≤-72℃ coincides with the rainfall center best. (3) In this rainstorm, distribution of 5 min rainfall is almost in accord with distribution of CG lightning number, which happends 10 min earlier than jump of surface precipitation. (4) Mesoscale vortex in radar radial velocity graph is one of the most important factors for this rainstorm. Western Jiangxi presents notable wind convergence and wind speed divergence. Low level strong southwest jet’s overlying deep “radial wind convergence zone” helps the strengthening and maintaining of the rain. In addition, with the help of dynamic convergence and mountainous topography, strong southerly jet with abundant water vapor meets in the west of Jiangxi, causing continuous heavy rainfall. (5) The change of biggest radar echo intensity assists estimating the change of 5 min rainfall intensity, but it is not a good indicator. Radar wind profile products are good indicators of heavy rainfall on the surface, which forecasted this heavy rainfall seen in western Jiangxi 2 h in advance.
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基金项目:中国气象局关键技术集成及应用项目(CMAGJ2014Z07)、公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201406002)和2015年江西省气象局课题“强对流天气的格点化预报方法研究”共同资助
引用文本:
支树林,陈娟,包慧濛,2015.一次副热带高压边缘上大暴雨的中尺度特征分析[J].气象,41(10):1203-1214.
ZHI Shulin,CHEN Juan,BAO Huimeng,2015.Mesoscale Characteristics Analysis of Rainstorm on the Edge of Subtropical High[J].Meteor Mon,41(10):1203-1214.