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气象:2015,41(10):1177-1189
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全球变暖背景下我国春季气温的时空变化特征
(1.南京信息工程大学气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心,南京 210044;2.国家气候中心,中国气象局气候研究开放实验室,北京 100081;3.南京信息工程大学大气科学学院,南京 210044)
Spatial and Temporal Characteristics of Air Temperature over China in Spring Under the Background of Global Warming
(1.Collaborative Innovation Centre on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044;2.Laboratory for Climate Studies of China Meteorological Administration, National Climate Centre, Beijing 100081;3.College of Atmospheric Science, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044)
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投稿时间:2015-02-15    修订日期:2015-05-11
中文摘要: 利用我国台站观测逐日气温资料和美国NCEP/NCAR再分析大气环流资料,通过分析比较我国1951—1980和1981—2010年两个时段春季气温的季节、月、候时间尺度的气候平均特征,研究20世纪80年代以后的春季气温和季节进程的变化特征,并初步探讨了春季气温变化的可能原因。结果表明:20世纪80年代以后,除了西南等地,全国大部分地区春季增温,由东北到西南呈现气温“升高—降低”的形势。在春季3—5月,除西南局部地区气温下降外,全国其余大部分地区气温升高0~1℃。3—5月季节进程在江南和西南东部地区加快,内蒙古和华南南部地区则经历了由快到慢的变化,东北地区、西南地区南部、西北地区北部春季进程速度减慢。总体来说,在全球变暖背景下,我国东部地区春季开始早、结束早,西部地区春季开始和结束时间变化不明显。与1951—1980年相比,20世纪80年代以后,春季乌拉尔山地区高压减弱,东亚大槽减弱,亚洲中高纬地区纬向环流加强,西太平洋副热带高压加强,东亚副热带西风急流明显增强,因此不利于来自北半球极地和高纬地区的冷空气影响我国,我国大部(特别是东北)地区春季气温偏高。但是,中东急流偏强,东亚副热带急流偏南,有利于欧洲中东部冷空气影响我国西南地区,导致西南地区气温偏低;同时,南支槽偏弱,不利于印度洋和孟加拉湾的暖湿气流向北影响我国西南地区,也使得西南地区气温易于偏低。
Abstract:The climatological characteristics of seasonal, monthly and pentad mean air temperatures in the springs of 1981-2010 are analyzed and compared with those in the springs of 1951-1980 by using the daily air temperatures from observing stations of China and the monthly NCEP/NCAR atmospheric reanalysis data of the United States. The variation characteristics of air temperature and seasonal process in spring after 1980s are also investigated. The possible causes for temperature change in spring are preliminarily discussed. The results show that except the Southwest China, most regions of China experience warming temperature in spring and the situation of temperature “increase decrease” is presented from Northeast to Southwest after 1980s. The air temperature rises by 0-1℃ in most regions of China except some parts of Southwest China in March, April and May. The seasonal process from March to May speeds up in the region to the south of Yangtze River and the eastern part of Southwest China, while it slows down in northeast China, the southern part of Southwest China and the northern part of Northwest China. The seasonal process in Inner Mongolia and the southern part of South China goes from fast to slow. On the whole, under the background of global warming, the onset and end dates of spring become earlier in East China, while the change is indistinct in West China. Compared with the condition in 1951-1980, the Ural blocking high and East Asian trough have weakened, while the zonal circulation over Asia in the middle and high latitudes, the subtropical high in western Pacific Ocean, and the subtropical westerly jet over East Asia have strengthened since 1980s. Those are disadvantageous to the influence of cold air from polar region and high latitude areas in the Northern Hemisphere on the climate of China. Therefore, temperatures are high over most of China, especially Northeast China in spring. However, the strengthen of the middle east jet and the southward of the East Asian jet are in favor of the cold air from the central eastern part of Europe influencing Southwest China and resulting in low air temperature there. In the meantime, the weakened southern branch trough goes against the warm and wet flows from the Indian Ocean and Bay of Bengal influencing the Southwest China, which easily results in low temperature in these areas.
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基金项目:国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)(2013CB430202)、国家重大科学研究计划(2012CB955203)、公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201306021、GYHY 201406018)、国家自然科学基金项目(41175065)和气象行业标准项目(2200513)共同资助
引用文本:
董李丽,李清泉,丁一汇,2015.全球变暖背景下我国春季气温的时空变化特征[J].气象,41(10):1177-1189.
DONG Lili,LI Qingquan,DING Yihui,2015.Spatial and Temporal Characteristics of Air Temperature over China in Spring Under the Background of Global Warming[J].Meteor Mon,41(10):1177-1189.