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投稿时间：2015-03-23 修订日期：2015-04-09
投稿时间：2015-03-23 修订日期：2015-04-09
中文摘要: 文章对2014年12月至2015年2月T639、ECMWF（文中简称EC）及日本数值模式的中期预报产品进行了对比分析和检验。结果表明：三个模式对亚洲中高纬环流形势的调整和演变及850 hPa温度转折性变化具有较好的中期预报性能，但都存在随时效增长的系统性偏差；对北方地区温度的预报， EC模式表现为预报较零场偏高，而T639模式表现为预报较零场偏低；对于海平面气压场，EC模式对冷空气前锋的预报与零场更加一致。
Abstract:The medium range forecasting performances of T639, ECMWF and Japan models from September to November 2014 are verified and compared. The results show that the three models all have good performances in predicting the variation and adjustment of atmospheric circulation over Asian middle and high latitude areas and the transition of temperature at 850 hPa, but all of them have systemic errors increasing with forecasting time length. Both T639 and EC have biases in temperature forecast for the northern part of China. The forecast of ECMWF model is higher than initial field, but T639 model is exactly the opposite. For the sea level pressure forecasting, EC model has better performance than the other two models.
keywords: T639 model, ECMWF model, Japan model, performance of medium range forecasting, synoptic verification
文章编号： 中图分类号： 文献标志码：
基金项目:
| Author Name | Affiliation |
| ZHAO Xiaolin | National Meteorological Centre, Beijing 100081 |
引用文本：
赵晓琳,2015.2014年12月至2015年2月T639、ECMWF及日本模式中期预报性能检验[J].气象,41(5):649-653.
ZHAO Xiaolin,2015.[J].Meteor Mon,41(5):649-653.
赵晓琳,2015.2014年12月至2015年2月T639、ECMWF及日本模式中期预报性能检验[J].气象,41(5):649-653.
ZHAO Xiaolin,2015.[J].Meteor Mon,41(5):649-653.