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气象:2015,41(5):598-612
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美国NOAA试验平台和春季预报试验概要
(1.国家气象中心,北京 100081;2.OU CAPS, Norman, OK 73072, USA;3.北京大学物理学院,北京 100871)
An Overview of NOAA Testbeds and Spring Experiment in the United States
(1.National Meteorological Centre, Beijing 100081;2.OU CAPS, Norman, OK 73072, USA;3.School of Physics, Peking University, Beijing 100871)
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投稿时间:2014-09-04    修订日期:2015-01-06
中文摘要: 美国国家海洋大气局(NOAA)从2000年开始以试验平台(Testbed)的形式逐步探索了气象科研向业务转化工作。目前,试验平台已成为美国气象事业的有机组成部分。本文首先简要介绍了美国各个试验平台的概况及其主要成果,重点介绍了灾害天气试验平台(hazadous weather testbed,HWT)的组织、春季预报试验和取得的进展。强对流天气、定量降水、飓风和航空气象等的预报试验结果表明,发展包括不同类型强对流天气和对流风暴、定量降水预报、热带气旋大风等的各种概率预报是美国天气业务的重要发展方向。2003年以来的灾害天气试验平台春季试验表明,“对流可分辨”(Convection Allowing)的高分辨率集合数值预报是发展精细化概率预报业务的基础;数值模式同化技术及其预报检验和应用技术的开发是提高强对流天气和定量降水预报概率预报的技术支撑。美国地球静止业务环境卫星R系列 (GOES R)资料应用试验场的工作方式和成果可作为我国风云4号 (FY 4)静止试验卫星相关工作的借鉴。
Abstract:Effective and smooth transitions from research and development to operational implementation play important parts in promoting the development of meteorological enterprise. Since 2000, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) of the United States of America has begun to organize several test beds to implement the transitions from research and development to operations, and the test beds have become an integral part of the weather enterprise, bridging research and forecast services. This paper briefly introduces an overview of the different test beds of NOAA and their main achievements, and highlights organization and Spring Experiment of the HWT (Hazadous Weather Testbed). By forecasting experiments in severe convective weather, quantitative precipitation forecast, hurricanes, and aviation weather, we can see that developing the probabilistic forecast products of different types of severe convective weather, quantitative precipitation forecast, and the tropical storm force winds is an important development goal of the U.S. weather service. The Spring Experiment of HWT showed that high resolution “convection allowing” numerical weather prediction (NWP) models [hereafter convection allowing models (CAMs)] are the technical foundation for developing fine probabilistic forecasting operation, and the development of CAMs and data assimilation, testing and application of CAMs forecasts can provide objective technical support for probabilistic forecasts of severe convective weather and quantitative precipitation. The achievements and organization of GOES R (Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite R series) Proving Ground can also provide a reference for the application of FY 4 (Fengyun 4) satellite data.
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基金项目:国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)(2013CB430106)、中国气象局预报技术集成与应用项目(CMAGJ2013ZX ZH1)和国家自然科学基金项目(41375051)共同资助
引用文本:
郑永光,薛明,陶祖钰,2015.美国NOAA试验平台和春季预报试验概要[J].气象,41(5):598-612.
ZHENG Yongguang,XUE Ming,TAO Zuyu,2015.An Overview of NOAA Testbeds and Spring Experiment in the United States[J].Meteor Mon,41(5):598-612.