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气象:2015,41(3):304-310
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BCC_CSM气候模式对风暴轴的模拟能力评估
(南京信息工程大学气象灾害省部共建教育部重点实验室,南京 210044)
Evaluation on Simulation Capability of Storm Track with BCC_CSM Model
(Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044)
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投稿时间:2013-11-25    修订日期:2014-09-18
中文摘要: 本文利用NCEP/NCAR再分析资料从不同角度评估了BCC_CSM气候模式对风暴轴的模拟能力。对于气候态的模拟,BCC_CSM气候模式可以准确地模拟出各季节风暴轴主体的强度与位置。对于时空分布的年际变化的模拟,BCC_CSM模拟的冬季风暴轴EOF分解的第一与第二模态特征向量场同NCEP再分析资料对应的特征向量场结构类似,前两个模态分别为全区一致及南北反向型,第三模态则有所不同。对于年内逐月的风暴轴强度和纬度指数变化,BCC_CSM有着较好的模拟效果,可以模拟出太平洋风暴轴独有的“深冬抑制”现象,但对经度指数变化的模拟则与再分析资料有着较大差异。对于风暴轴向极移动情况的模拟,太平洋地区的模拟结果没有表现出向极移动,而大西洋地区则模拟出1970年以后风暴轴位置向极地偏移的趋势。
Abstract:Using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data this paper assessed the simulation capability of storm track by BCC_CSM. The results show that for the simulation of climate state the BCC_CSM model can simulate the location and intensity of the storm track in different seasons. The EOF results show that, regarding the simulation of the interannual changes of spatial and temporal distribution, eigenvectors of the BCC_CSM’s first mode and second mode are similar with that corresponding to NCEP reanalysis data. The first two modes are both the same in the whole region and north south reverse, but the third mode is different. For storm track strength and latitude index of each month, the BCC_CSM model has a nice simulation result and it can simulate the Midwinter Suppression of the Pacific storm track, and ineffective analog longitude index change. Simulations for moving trends of the storm track toward the polar region in the Pacific are not significant, while in the Atlantic Region the trend of storm axis position is simulated being toward the polar region after 1970.
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基金项目:公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201306028)、国家自然科学基金项目(41075070)和国家气候中心气候模式发展专项共同资助
引用文本:
顾聪,朱伟军,周星妍,2015.BCC_CSM气候模式对风暴轴的模拟能力评估[J].气象,41(3):304-310.
GU Cong,ZHU Weijun,ZHOU Xingyan,2015.Evaluation on Simulation Capability of Storm Track with BCC_CSM Model[J].Meteor Mon,41(3):304-310.