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气象:2014,40(12):1464-1480
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1330号台风海燕强烈发展和快速移动原因分析
(国家气象中心, 北京 100081)
Analysis of the Intense Development and Fast Moving of No.1330 Typhoon Haiyan
(National Meteorological Centre, Beijing 100081)
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投稿时间:2014-01-10    修订日期:2014-09-25
中文摘要: 本文运用NCEP再分析资料(水平分辨率1°×1°,垂直层次26层)和各种常规观测资料以及中央气象台台风实时定位定强数据对2013年全球最强台风海燕的特点和极端性展开分析,并运用天气学分析和动力学诊断的方法探讨“海燕”强度发展的动力机制和快速移动的原因,同时发掘预报着眼点,以提高中央气象台对类似台风的综合预报能力。本文主要研究结论为:(1) “海燕”在登陆菲律宾之前的持续加强和高强度维持发生在副热带西风急流加强南压和副热带高压南侧对流层各层低纬东风同时加强的条件下。(2) 副热带西风急流加强南压是导致西太平洋副热带高压加强和副热带高压南侧对流层各层低纬东风加强及“海燕”高速靠近并登陆菲律宾的重要原因。(3) “海燕”的水平风速分布存在明显不对称,呈现台风北侧东风大于南侧西风、台风东侧南风大于西侧北风的特点,其中纬向风的不对称更显著。而由台风海燕东西两侧经向风和南北两侧纬向风的不对称分布导致的切变正涡度的增加可能是台风强度持续增强的重要原因之一。(4)对流层低层水平辐合的显著加强和台风海燕南北两侧经向垂直环流圈的加强和建立也是“海燕”强度持续加强的重要原因之一。(5) 台风海燕持续加强和高强度维持的主要动力机制为内核区对流层低层水平辐合和对流层中低层涡度的持续增长以及台风所处环境的高层辐散的明显增加和高低层垂直切变的减小。(6) 预报启示为:对于秋冬季的台风而言,除了西太平洋副热带高压、西风槽、对流层低层偏东风、越赤道气流外,还需关注对流层上层副热带西风急流的变化,特别是对于偏西行台风而言,副热带西风急流的加强南压可能会导致台风移速的加快和强度的明显加强。另外对流层上层不光是台风的出流层,能影响台风高层出流的变化,对流层上层的环流还可能对台风移动造成一定影响。
Abstract:NCEP reanalysis data (horizontal resolution of 1°×1°, vertical level 26 layers) and a variety of conventional observation data and real time typhoon positioning data from Central Meteorological Observatory are used to analyze the features of No.1330 typhoon Haiyan. The weather analysis and dynamic diagnostic methods are used to explore “Haiyan” dynamic mechanism of strengthing development and fast moving, and to excavate forecast key points to raise the capability of Central Meteorological Observatory in forecasting similar typhoons in the future. The main conclusions of this paper are: (1) “Haiyan” continues to strengthen and keeps strength before landing Philippines in the simultaneously strengthening of the subtropical westerly jet in the course southward and the easterly wind located in the south side of subtropical high. (2) The strengthening of subtropical westerly jet in the course southward is an important cause for the strengthening of the subtropical high and the easterly wind in the south side of the subtropical high in all tropospheric layers. (3) The distribution of “Haiyan” horizontal wind speed is obviously asymmetric, showing the easterly is greater than the westerly, the southerly is greater than the northerly, and the characteristics of the zonal wind asymmetry is more pronounced. The enhancement of shear positive vorticity caused by the asymmetry of the zonal wind and meridional wind may be the important cause for the intense development of “Haiyan” before its landing Phillppine. (4) The enhancement of horizontal convergence in the lower troposphere and the existence of vertical meridional circulation may be another important cause. (5) The main dynamic mechanism of the continuously strengthening of Typhoon Haiyan is horizontal convergence in lower troposphere and tropospheric vorticity increase significantly in inner core and the enhancement of divergence in upper troposphere and the decrease of wind shear in its environmental area. (6) For typhoon in autumn and winter, in addition to the western Pacific subtropical high, westerly trough, the lower troposphere easterly winds, cross equatorial flow, it is important to pay attention to the changes in the upper troposphere subtropical westerly jet stream, especially to the westward typhoon. The strengthening of the subtropical westerly jet may cause typhoon movement to accelerate significantly and intensify. Furthermore upper troposphere not only impacts the change of high level outflow of typhoon, but also plays some guiding roles in typhoon movement as well as the upper circulations.
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基金项目:公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201406014)资助
引用文本:
张玲,许映龙,黄奕武,2014.1330号台风海燕强烈发展和快速移动原因分析[J].气象,40(12):1464-1480.
ZHANG Ling,XU Yinglong,HUANG Yiwu,2014.Analysis of the Intense Development and Fast Moving of No.1330 Typhoon Haiyan[J].Meteor Mon,40(12):1464-1480.