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气象:2014,40(12):1429-1438
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GRAPES_MESO V3.3模式强天气预报性能的初步检验
(1.国家气象中心,北京 100081;2.中国气象局数值预报中心,北京 100081)
Preliminary Synoptic Verification on the Performance of GRAPES_MESO V3.3 in Severe Weather Forecasting
(1.National Meteorological Centre, Beijing 100081;2.Numerical Weather Prediction Centre of CMA, Beijing 100081)
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投稿时间:2014-06-12    修订日期:2014-08-22
中文摘要: 本文针对2013年6月升级后的GRAPES_MESO V3.3模式预报产品进行了天气学检验。检验结果表明:模式能够较好地反映强对流过程发生发展的水汽、稳定度和垂直风切变等物理条件,8—10月期间,预报准确率随着季节的转换而有所不同,对于达到一定阈值条件的部分物理参数预报效果较好,对业务具有较好的参考价值。模式对于强降水以及华北雷暴大风和冰雹等强天气过程具有一定的预报能力,特别是高时空分辨率的产品能够在一定程度上较好地描述过程的发生发展,但对于极端强降水、受地形影响的强降水等,预报能力有限。
Abstract:The synoptic verification is conducted for the GRAPES_MESO V3.3 updated in June 2013. The results indicate that the model can forecast the physical conditions well, including the water vapor, the instability and the vertical wind shear, but the forecast accuracy is different from August to October. For some of the physical conditions that reach a given threshold, the model can forecast better. Moreover, the initiation and development of the rainstorm and convective weather can be reflected well, especially the details from the high resolution products, but not very good for the rainstorm that is extreme or affected by the topography.
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基金项目:中国气象局数值预报(GRAPES)发展专项和公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201406002)共同资助
引用文本:
毛冬艳,朱文剑,樊利强,蔡雪薇,张涛,陈静,黄丽萍,王雨,2014.GRAPES_MESO V3.3模式强天气预报性能的初步检验[J].气象,40(12):1429-1438.
MAO Dongyan,ZHU Wenjian,FAN Liqiang,CAI Xuewei,ZHANG Tao,CHEN Jing,HUANG Liping,WANG Yu,2014.Preliminary Synoptic Verification on the Performance of GRAPES_MESO V3.3 in Severe Weather Forecasting[J].Meteor Mon,40(12):1429-1438.