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投稿时间：2013-10-01 修订日期：2014-10-12
投稿时间：2013-10-01 修订日期：2014-10-12
中文摘要: 对2014年6—8月T639、ECMWF及日本（文中简称JP）数值模式的中期预报产品进行了分析对比和检验。结果表明：3家模式对亚洲中高纬环流形势和850 hPa温度的调整与演变均具有较好的预报性能。对比而言，ECMWF模式的预报较其他两家模式更接近实况。对副热带高压的变化情况，ECMWF和T639模式较好的体现出了各项指标的变化趋势，但对具体的变化情况均存在不同程度的误差。对于1409号超强台风威马逊(Rammasun)的路径及强度预报，T639模式预报与零场较为接近，ECMWF模式预报台风强度较实况偏弱
Abstract:The performances of medium range forecasts are verified and compared for the T639, ECMWF and JP models from June to August 2014. The result shows that the three models have good performance on predicting the variation and adjustment of the atmospheric circulation and 850 hPa temperature over Asian middle and high latitude areas. In contract, ECMWF model has better performance than T639 or JP models. Both ECMWF and T639 models have good performance on predicting western Pacific subtropical high while they still have some bias at some time. T639 model is the best at the prediction of the track and intensity of typhoon Rammasun among all three models, and the forecasting intensity of ECMWF model is weaker than that of the observation.
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基金项目:
| Author Name | Affiliation |
| ZHANG Feng | National Meteorological Centre, Beijing 100081 |
引用文本：
张峰,2014.2014年6—8月T639、ECMWF及日本模式中期预报性能检验[J].气象,40(11):1414-1421.
ZHANG Feng,2014.Performance Verification of Medium Range Forecasting by T639 and ECMWF and Japan Model from June to August 2014[J].Meteor Mon,40(11):1414-1421.
张峰,2014.2014年6—8月T639、ECMWF及日本模式中期预报性能检验[J].气象,40(11):1414-1421.
ZHANG Feng,2014.Performance Verification of Medium Range Forecasting by T639 and ECMWF and Japan Model from June to August 2014[J].Meteor Mon,40(11):1414-1421.